Thursday, October 13, 2011

Rugby World Cup 2011: Will NZ even need Richie McCaw do whack the Wallabies? And my predictions…


Will he play? Won't he play? How do you handle a 'problem' like McCaw?


Captain and commander: Might Graham Henry leave Richie McCaw on the bench just in case he's needed?


His injury again brings up that age-old debate – do you field a star player able to give only 70 per cent or so, or an average player giving 100 per cent?


I know Steve Hansen has claimed McCaw is fit and will play at Eden Park, but I'm not convinced yet. Hansen seemed to whisper it, rather than say it loudly and confidently, and it appears he was sick of being asked the 'will he, won't he' question, that his answer was aimed simply at cutting short the press conference. Besides, reports have it widely that McCaw is still hobbling around town with a slight grimace on his face.


McCaw, even on one leg, is well worth his spot. Even just for the psychology of his presence. No argument there. But will he even be needed on the field, is my question? Why risk him possibly being injured for the final, when the All Blacks can subdue Horwill & Co without him on Sunday?


Yes, David Pocock is a big threat to the New Zealand dream of ending 24 years of hurt, but after the whole Bryce Lawrence furore I'm confident referee Craig Joubert will watch him like a hawk on Sunday and the openside flanker won't be half the force he was against South Africa.


Okay, maybe the All Blacks will need McCaw – if only to cut off Will Genia or put motor-mouth Quade Cooper in his place, but should the question be purely black or white, as in he plays or he's out of the match-day 22?


Might Graham Henry spring a surprise by naming him on the bench? Then bring him on when/if the All Blacks turn to custard, or keep him fresh and fit(ter) to deal with the menace that's Sam Warburton if the black machine whacks the Wallabies off the park.


Or if Henry picks him him for the starting XV, should he have considered keeping Captain Fantastic on the bench instead? A simply crazy idea or a viable middle road?


And with that my predictions for the weekend…


New Zealand v Australia Could come down to which loose forwards rattle the opponents' No 10 the most. Who'll show the most jitters, young, new call-up Aaron Cruden or gifted maverick Cooper? Will Australia be able to replicate their magnificent Brisbane performance in August? Or will they this week discover that, unlike the Springboks, you can't allow the All Blacks 70 per cent of possession and still win? 


Ultimately, too much class in the All Blacks to be outdone by an Australian team that imploded against Ireland and burgled a victory against South Africa. NZ 24 Australia 15.


Wales v France A mouth-watering match to start the weekend. Wales have been mammoth so far, hugely disciplined too. They've stepped up in each game after losing their pool opener. Have they mentally and/or physically got one or two more massive games in them? And how much will Rhys Priestland's injury hurt them?


The French, by contrast, have been loose canons, who bumbled their way through the pool stage and were helped to victory last week by England's ineptitude. Was that their customary one big game per World Cup? Or is that game still to come? This has the potential to be the match of RWC 2011.


I'm going to pick Wales' structured, overall game plan over the French's thrilling but hot-and-cold approach to their game, and say Wales 18 France 11.


Let me know how you see it…


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