My statistics disagree with the consensus favorites in only one matchup this weekend: Panthers versus Falcons at Atlanta. It’s not surprising most people favor the home-team Falcons. Carolina is 1-4, coming off a 2-14 season, while Atlanta is 2-3, coming off a 13-3 season. But statistically they’re nearly identical teams, with one critical difference.
The table below lists the key predictive team stats: net yards per attempt, running success rate, interception rates, and penalty rates on both offense and defense, plus offensive fumble rates. Notice how similar the two teams are in most categories.
Both feature spectacularly poor pass defenses. The Panthers are better at running the ball, and the Falcons are a little better at stopping the run. But the most reliably consistent predictor of game outcomes is offensive net Yards Per Attempt (net YPA), and the Panthers are clearly better in that department. In fact, they’re about two standard deviations better. If you remember any of your high school statistics class, you’ll know that’s a big-time difference (disclaimer: not an official statistical term).
That difference is more than enough to overcome the Falcons’ home-field advantage, mathematically at least. Throw in Atlanta’s relatively weak opponent strength so far this season, and that’s why Carolina is your upset special this week, by a margin of 56 percent to 44 percent.
Here are all the game probabilities for Week 6.
Brian Burke, a former Navy pilot who has taken up the less dangerous hobby of N.F.L. statistical analysis, operates Advanced NFL Stats, a blog about football, math and human behavior.
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