Jason and Justin Sablich are here to help you with your fantasy football team. The Sablich brothers will provide fantasy football advice throughout the season on this blog and on Twitter (@5thDownFantasy).
If you submit one of the 50 most accurate responses this week, you can win a prize from FantasyPros.com.
Raise your hand if you thought Buffalo’s Fred Jackson would be the top-ranked fantasy running back heading into Week 6? Right, didn’t think so. Don’t worry, neither did we. That’s why fantasy football analysts don’t get paid the big bucks: there are too many things we just can’t see coming. But that doesn’t mean we’re going to stop trying. We feel confident enough to tell you that Jackson and Ahmad Bradshaw are in line for big fantasy days in Week 6 when the Buffalo Bills and Giants meet on Sunday. Keep reading to find out why.
Do you have a “start or sit” question? We are taking questions on Twitter. Follow us at @5thDownFantasy. Also, check out our complete rankings for Week 6.
Favorable/Unfavorable Quarterback Matchups
Favorable
Andy Dalton (CIN) vs. Indianapolis
– Dalton has been too inconsistent to warrant starting status in standard 12-team leagues, but he’s certainly worth a look this week in leagues that start two quarterbacks. The Colts just gave up 257 yards and 4 touchdowns to Matt Cassel, and have allowed 26 fantasy points on average to the position over the last three weeks.
Tony Romo (DAL) vs. New England
– Romo got in some much needed rest during his bye week and will have a healthy Miles Austin and Dez Bryant at his disposal for a meeting with the N.F.L.’s worst-ranked passing defense.
Ryan Fitzpatrick (BUF) vs. Giants – Tavaris Jackson and Charlie Whitehurst combined to throw 315 yards and 2 touchdowns on the Giants last week, so it’s not just their run defense that is having issues. Fitzpatrick hasn’t been racking up a lot of yards lately, but he is coming off a career-high 77.8 completion rate. This game has the feel of a high-scoring affair with both defenses hemorrhaging yards.
Eli Manning (NYG) vs. Buffalo – This defense has allowed 330 yards and 2.25 touchdowns a game to quarterbacks over the last four weeks. Manning has averaged 25 standard fantasy points over his last two contests and has found a new emerging weapon in Victor Cruz.
Unfavorable
Alex Smith (SF) vs. Detroit – Smith has been solid of late, posting 20-plus fantasy points in his last two games. But we’ve been down this road before with him, only to have him implode a week or two later. With Smith on the road against Detroit (sixth worst QB matchup), we could think of less risky starts this weekend.
Curtis Painter (IND) vs. Cincinnati
– Sure he had 21 standard points last week, but keep in mind that came against the Chiefs, and his second-half performance was nothing to write home about. The Bengals are 17 times tougher on quarterbacks than the Chiefs are in fantasy football, and a quarterback has yet to post more than 19 fantasy points a game on them this season.
Rex Grossman (WAS) vs. Philadelphia
– Grossman came into his bye week on a down note, and could come out on one as well with his matchup against the surprisingly desperate Eagles. The Redskins will most likely try to attack Philadelphia’s weak run defense as much as possible, and the Eagles’ secondary is coming off its best performance of the season, limiting Ryan Fitzpatrick to 14 fantasy points.
Matt Schaub (HOU) vs. Baltimore — Not having Andre Johnson on the field last week against the Raiders did not stop Schaub from having an outstanding fantasy day, but it could catch up to him here against a much nastier defense, which has allowed just 15 points a week to quarterbacks through its first four games.
Favorable/Unfavorable Running Back Matchups
Favorable
Cedric Benson (CIN) vs. Indianapolis – With a decision on Benson’s appeal not likely for another few weeks, you can expect him to be active in this extra-friendly matchup (sixth best for RB, 22 FPPG). In Week 5, the Colts surrendered 194 yards on the ground to a Chiefs team that has had major problems running the ball all season.
Ahmad Bradshaw (NYG) vs. Buffalo – Bradshaw’s Week 5 was a disappointment considering he didn’t have to share the ball with Brandon Jacobs. But we all knew running on Seattle’s ninth ranked rushing defense wasn’t going to be easy. The Bills are a much better matchup as they have allowed 138 yards on the ground per contest.
Fred Jackson (BUF) vs. Giants – Seattle recently became the third consecutive team to rush for at least 100 yards on the Giants’ defense, which now puts them just ahead of Oakland (21st over all, 122.2 YPG). Coach Tom Coughlin believes it’s a matter of gap responsibility, while some want to blame injuries or defensive coordinator Perry Fewell. Whatever the case may be, it will most likely get worse before it gets better with fantasy’s No. 1 running back in town for Week 6.
Michael Turner (ATL) vs. Carolina – Another week, another Panthers defender injured (LB Omar Gaither will miss the next two to four weeks), just more bad news for fantasy’s third best running back matchup (26 FPPG). Turner should have no problems topping the 56 yards he tallied last week against the Green Bay Packers.
Unfavorable
Jahvid Best (DET) vs. San Francisco
— Best’s 163-yard breakout against the Bears basically came on two plays (not that owners are complaining). But a tough Niners run defense comes to town allowing just 9 fantasy points a game through the first five weeks.
BenJarvus Green-Ellis (NE) vs. Dallas – New England’s sixth-ranked running game goes head to head with the Dallas Cowboys’ top-ranked rushing defense. The Law Firm is always a threat to find the end zone, but the yards will be hard-earned this week.
Delone Carter (IND) vs. Cincinnati
– Carter will split carries with Donald Brown against the Bengals’ seventh ranked run defense, which is surrendering just 3.2 yards a carry.
Earnest Graham (TB) vs. New Orleans
– Graham will carry the load against the Saints this week, but there isn’t a ton of talent here to get excited about, and the Saints are a quality run defense, limiting the likes of Maurice Jones-Drew, Matt Forte, James Starks and Ben Tate to a 70-yard average in previous games.
Favorable/Unfavorable Wide Receiver Matchups
Favorable
Miles Austin/Dez Bryant (DAL) vs. New England – Both receivers participated in practice this week, and both should be feeling better after their Week 5 bye. This is bad news for a Patriots secondary that is yielding 30 standard fantasy points a game to the position.
A.J. Green (CIN) vs. Indianapolis – Dwayne Bowe was the latest receiver to toy with Colts cornerback Jacob Lacey last Sunday (7 receptions, 128 yards, 2 touchdowns). WR1s are averaging 16 fantasy points a week against the Colts this season, which makes Green an even more appealing WR2 option in Week 6.
Greg Little (CLE) vs. Oakland – Little has been promoted to full-time status and will have a solid matchup to display his talents against this weekend (23 FPPG). He’s a solid WR3 play.
David Nelson (BUF) vs. Giants – The injury to Donald Jones will force Ryan Fitzpatrick to rely more on Nelson, and with Corey Webster expected to shadow Steve Johnson, he should have the easier challenge of facing Aaron Ross. This could be the game Nelson gets back on track.
Unfavorable
Reggie Wayne (IND) vs. Cincinnati
– Pierre Garcon seems to have emerged as Painter’s favorite target, at least for the time being, and this matchup isn’t a good one (sixth worst for receivers).
Santana Moss (WAS) vs. Philadelphia
– WR1s are averaging a minuscule 36 yards with one touchdown against the Eagles through five weeks this season.
Mike Thomas (JAX) vs. Pittsburgh – This is the worst matchup a receiver can have through five games (12 FPPG).
Steve Johnson (BUF) vs. Giants – Johnson owners can expect a better week than his 2-point performance against the Eagles, but it won’t come easy against Corey Webster. The Giants have limited No. 1 receivers to a 70-yard average this year.
Favorable/Unfavorable Tight End Matchups
Favorable
Dustin Keller (NYJ) vs. Miami – Miami has allowed 13 points a game to tight ends this season, a nice matchup for fantasy’s 10th-ranked TE to bounce back in.
Unfavorable
Owen Daniels (HOU) vs. Baltimore – If you own him, you’re starting him — just keep in mind that the Ravens have surrendered just 112 yards to the position and have yet to cough up a touchdown.
Favorable/Unfavorable Defense/Special Teams Matchups
Favorable
Cincinnati vs. Indianapolis, Minnesota vs. Chicago, Pittsburgh vs. Jacksonville, New Orleans vs. Tampa Bay, Jets vs. Miami.
Unfavorable
Dallas vs. New England, Giants vs. Buffalo, San Francisco vs. Detroit, Atlanta vs. Carolina.
Do you have a “start or sit” question? We are taking questions on Twitter. Follow us at @5thDownFantasy. Also, check out our complete rankings for Week 6.
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