Packers (7-0) at Chargers (4-3)
Sunday, 4:15 p.m.
Line: Packers by 5.5.
The Chargers’ Monday night loss to the Chiefs was so heartbreaking that San Diego State men’s basketball coach Steve Fisher offered Norv Turner his services as a psychoanalyst. Fisher coached the Michigan’s Fab Five in 1993, the year Chris Webber lost the championship game when he incurred a technical foul for calling a timeout his team did not have. (The N.C.A.A. swears none of this ever happened, of course, because the Fab Five never existed to them.) Parallels to the fourth-quarter fumble by Philip Rivers are obvious, and Fisher told The San Diego Union-Tribune that the Chargers could benefit from Turner’s patented not-so-tough love. “Most of the time you get there because your best player is your best player,” he said. “And then when things happen, you still have to wrap an arm around him and say, ‘You’re our best player.’”
Unfortunately, Turner must identify his best player before hugging it out. Rivers is in a wicked slump that goes beyond fourth quarter fumbles. Receiver Vincent Jackson (four catches on 16 throws in two games) is doing everything possible to not get open. Antonio Gates is battling through injuries. The defense is now populated by no-names. Kicker Nick Novak leads the Chargers in scoring, but no one wants to wrap an arm around a kicker.
Turner must identify and embrace said “best player” before facing the Packers, a team too predictably excellent to talk about. The Packers just win, with no Dream Team acquisitions, mysterious commissioner’s office meetings, or polarizing, bumbling, cult hero quarterbacks to obsess about. That makes it more fun to write about the Lions’ goon squad nouveau reputation, the Cowboys’ never-ending quest to convince the world that they are still relevant or Turner wandering through the Chargers’ clubhouse with his arms outstretched and a message of reassurance on his lips. Pick: Packers.
Giants (5-2) at Patriots (5-2)
Sunday, 4:15 p.m.
Line: Patriots by 8.5.
The defensive mastermind Bill Belichick has devised a fascinating new scheme. First, he cut the disappointing-but-experienced defensive backs Brandon Meriweather and Leigh Bodden, replacing them with career special teamers from other teams like James Ihedigbo and Antwaun Molden. Then, Belichick orders his defensive backs to play extremely deep: last week in Pittsburgh, the safeties sometimes lined up on the on ramp to Exit 28 of the Pennsylvania Turnpike. Everyone else blitzes, and Belichick dares quarterbacks to connect with wide-open receivers jogging across hundreds of square feet of unoccupied grass. As genius schemes go, this one is on a par with the old Apple “hockey puck” mouse, and the Patriots now allow a league-worst average of 424 total yards per game.
The Patriots’ offense can often bail their defense out, but they are in one of their periodic slumps. Every other Tom Brady pass is now a six-yard slant to Wes Welker, and the Patriots have indulged their mid-2000s nostalgia by putting Kevin Faulk back in the lineup. All the Giants have to do to bring back memories of their 2008 Super Bowl win is catch the football cleanly. And there’s the rub. Pick: Patriots.
Ravens (5-2) at Steelers (6-2)
Sunday, 8:20 p.m.
Line: Steelers by 3.
Sunday night has become Blowout Night in America. The last three Sunday night games have been decided by a 135-24 margin. The Vikings owner Zygi Wilf drew criticism for laughing through the final minutes of his team’s 39-10 loss a few weeks ago. He had a right to enjoy himself: it turned out to be the most competitive game in almost a month.
The folks at NBC are hoping the Ravens and the Steelers, who are meeting for the 10th time in the last 38 months, can deliver a close, hard-hitting game that will carry the Sunday night telecasts over into the land of milk, honey and flex scheduling. The Ravens coasted to an uncharacteristic 35-7 victory in the season opener, but their offense has major problems that were only partially masked last week by the Cardinals’ inability to cover Anquan Boldin. The Steelers’ offense, meanwhile, is humming after a convincing win over the Patriots. If the Steelers answer the Ravens blowout with one of their own, NBC may want to consider encore performances of “Parks and Recreation” after halftime. Pick: Steelers.
Jets (4-3) at Bills (5-2)
Sunday, 1 p.m.
Line: Bills by 1.5.
The Bills’ pass rush is suddenly so good that it can sack quarterbacks on Wednesday. The Bills were credited with a 10th sack against the Redskins after the league determined midweek that a John Beck fumble-stumble was a sack, not a rush for a loss of a yard. A look at the replay shows Washington’s Beck bobbling the ball with no defenders near him, attempting to dribble it Australian rules-style, then crumpling as Nick Barnett and Danny Batten closed in. Barnett and Batten each got half a sack; Mike Shanahan’s hubris should really have been credited with one-third.
Phantom sacks aside, this is not the silly Bills defense of last year, which could not decide whether to line up in a 3-4 or a 4-3 until after a ballcarrier was sprinting downfield. The rookie Marcell Dareus joins the veteran free agents Barnett and Kirk Morrison to make the Bills very stout up the middle, even with the All-Pro lineman Kyle Williams injured. The Jets’ offensive line is finally rounding back into shape, with Nick Mangold back at full speed after playing with limited practice reps in two games before the bye. The Jets’ line cannot afford to be surprised by the Bills: the grief can last all week long. Pick: Jets.
Buccaneers (4-3) at Saints (5-3)
Sunday, 1 p.m.
Line: Saints by 8.
Sean Payton is such a brilliant coach that he is capable of warping time and space. Buccaneers Coach Raheem Morris says that facing New Orleans causes accelerated aging. “When I got this job, I was 32,” he said. “I’m 46 now. That has a lot to do with the Saints. It’s unbelievable.” Two more Saints games, and Morris will be a super-evolved baby floating past the moons of Jupiter to Strauss music.
The Rams certainly grew up quickly when facing Payton’s Saints last week, but some of the nuances of the Saints offense may have been lost in translation, as the offensive coordinator Pete Carmichael filled in as the play-caller for the injured, booth-ridden Payton. (Carmichael did help the Saints score 62 points against the Colts, but the Colts’ defense looks like Scooby and Shaggy facing an amusement park owner in a ghost costume these days). Payton is taking an ever-increasing role in preparing the Saints, who must also bounce back from a 26-20 loss to the Buccaneers three weeks ago. Can Payton return to the days when his offense dominated the league? Let’s do the time warp again. Pick: Saints.
Seahawks (2-5) at Cowboys (3-4)
Sunday, 1 p.m.
Line: Cowboys by 11.5.
“Team chemistry” took on a whole new meaning when Seahawks Coach Pete Carroll admitted that he made a mistake by not settling for a field goal when his team was down, 17-3, before halftime last week; Carroll called for a shot at the end zone and came up short. “We learned about what happens when a coach gets hormonal and tries to freaking jam it down their throat for the touchdown,” he said on Monday before retreating to his bedroom with a quart of strawberry ice cream to watch Katherine Heigl films. Jerry Jones preached calm after Sunday night’s 34-7 loss to the Eagles. “There’s no alarm,” he said. “I want to be clear here. There’s absolutely no alarm.” That sounds a little bit like what the old farmer says in movies before putting down the lame horse. Pick: Cowboys.
Browns (3-4) at Texans (5-3)
Sunday, 1 p.m.
Line: Texans by 11.
The Texans are the latest team to be accused of dirty tactics in the League of Self-Actualized Athletes, formerly the N.F.L. Defensive linemen on the Titans and the Jaguars accused the Texans of executing illegal cut blocks, a technique Houston Coach Gary Kubiak has tacitly condoned since his days as an assistant with the 49ers and the Broncos. Jaguars defensive end Jeremy Mincey accused a Texans lineman of stepping on his hand, and there is photo evidence that tackle Duane Brown threw a punch against the Jaguars. Worst of all, Terrance Knighton accused the Texans of being arrogant. The Texans join the Lions as the team most likely to send opponents running to the guidance counselor with hurt feelings, and while no one wants to see a defender’s knees taken out or hands smashed, it is getting easier to pine for the days when linemen took care of their business on the field instead of running to the public for peer mediation. Pick: Texans.
Falcons (4-3) at Colts (0-8)
Sunday, 1 p.m.
Line: Falcons by 7.
Injury report for the Falcons: the rookie wide receiver Julio Jones returned to practice this week after missing two games with a hamstring injury. All-purpose back Jason Snelling will slide to fullback to replace Ovie Mughelli, who had season-ending medial collateral ligament surgery during the bye week. Injury report for the Colts: oh, what’s the use? Pick: Falcons.
Dolphins (0-7) at Chiefs (4-3)
Sunday, 1 p.m.
Line: Chiefs by 4.
Dolphins Coach Tony Sparano endured an 0-5 start as an assistant on Marty Schottenheimer’s Redskins staff in 2001. That team rebounded using the one-game-at-a-time philosophy. “We won one, then we won two, and then we won eight,” Sparano said this week. “So I just think we just got to win one. And not worry about eight right now.” It should be noted that no team has ever rebounded using the “win eight games at once” philosophy. It should also be noted that Sparano, Schottenheimer and the entire staff were fired at the end of the 2001 season. Pick: Chiefs.
49ers (6-1) at Redskins (4-3)
Sunday, 1 p.m.
Line: 49ers by 3.5.
The injured Redskin Chris Cooley has noticed a flaw in the logic of disgruntled Washington fans: they criticize the owner Daniel Snyder for being impatient and firing coaches, then call for the dismissal of Mike Shanahan (and his son/offensive coordinator Kyle) just because the Redskins are 9-24 under the current regime and clearly headed in the wrong direction. “So you criticize Dan Snyder for trading coaches and players every year and trying to do things every year, and then you call and say this is what we’ve got to do? I hate it,” Cooley said in a radio interview. Cooley the logician may not realize that when a product is terrible, it is no use blaming the customers. The former Redskins cornerback Carlos Rogers, who is enjoying the best season of his career with the 49ers, told the same radio show that he wanted to leave Washington two years ago and that football “wasn’t fun” under Shanahan or the previous coach, Jim Zorn. Don’t be too critical, Rogers; Cooley is listening. Pick: Niners.
Broncos (2-5) at Raiders (4-3)
Sunday, 4:05 p.m.
Line: Raiders by 8.
Some analysts billed last week’s Lions-Broncos game as a battle of good versus evil. They obviously did not take a long look at the schedule: the Raiders are the N.F.L.’s default evil team until proven otherwise. Then again, judging by their current official representatives, neither good nor evil is what it used to be. The Broncos and the Raiders have lost their most recent games by a combined score of 73-10 and have spent recent weeks desperately trying to prop up their quarterbacks, Carson Palmer because he spent the first month of the season in a mountaintop monastery trying to empty his consciousness of Bengals thoughts, Tim Tebow because cultural icon status is of little use when you cannot read a defense or throw straight. Good versus evil, then, is clearly pushing things. Formerly menacing versus likeably inept is more like it. Pick: Raiders.
Bengals (5-2) at Titans (4-3)
Sunday, 4:05 p.m.
Line: Titans by 3.
Chris Johnson has spent the first two months of the season running right into his blockers’ backs, missing holes and losing yardage while trying to bounce every run to the outside. Lockout and holdout rust are the obvious causes, but you do not get anywhere as a football analyst these days by citing obvious causes, so grand conspiracy theories are sprouting: Johnson lacks “rhythm” with his linemen, coaches are using him wrong and so on. In fact, that is not Chris Johnson at all, but the Earl of Oxford, and 300 years from now a team of heroic liberal arts professors will see right through the facade. Pick: Bengals.
Rams (1-6) at Cardinals (1-6)
Sunday, 4:15 p.m.
Line: Cardinals by 3.5.
At about 3 p.m. Eastern time last Sunday, the Rams led the Saints, 17-0, the Cardinals led the Ravens, 24-6, chickens began laying square eggs and portraits began dropping from the walls of creepy old mansions. The Cardinals coughed up their brief lead, partly rebalancing the cosmic scale. Rams quarterback Sam Bradford (high ankle sprain) is out of his protective boot and working out, though A.J. Feeley may get one more start on Sunday. Kevin Kolb, meanwhile, is in a protective boot, so John Skelton may start for the Cardinals. The quarterback changes further fueled speculation that Feeley and Kolb are the same person and therefore cannot occupy the same field at the same time. Pick: Rams.
Bears (4-3) at Eagles (3-4)
Monday, 8:30 p.m.
Line: Eagles by 8.
Matt Forte is hardly chopped liver. But sometimes he feels like it. “The running back position is the most physically demanding on the field,” Forte told The Chicago Sun-Times this week. “So to continue to give me the touches I’ve had since my rookie year but not award me a long-term contract sends the message that you’re O.K. grinding me into a pulp.” That’s right, Forte, who ranks seventh in the league in carries right now, is complaining about a Mike Martz workload. If he saw a Vikings gameplan, he would probably faint. The Bears may scale Forte’s workload back this week. Martz never needs an excuse to pass more, the Eagles have patched their run defense somewhat, and this game promises to be a shootout, anyway. Once his touches are reduced, Forte is free to claim that the Bears are trying to drive his market value down. Pick: Bears.
Times are Eastern. Picks do not reflect the betting line.
