Last week, I wrote that the monster passing numbers from the first five weeks took a serious body blow in Week 6, evidenced by a huge decline in passing touchdowns. The knockout punch was delivered in Week 7. After teams averaged over 240 passing yards per game through the first six weeks of the season, the 26 teams playing in Week 7 combined for only 4,997 passing yards this past weekend, a paltry 191 yards per game. Nowhere was this more evident — on Sunday — than in Cleveland, as the Seahawks and Browns put on a pitiful display. The Browns and Seahawks combined for 435 yards and 9 points. It was the worst display of offense in a game not affected by severe weather in over a decade. The Colt McCoy pass attempt watch marches on: he threw 35 passes in a game in which the Browns allowed only 137 yards and 3 points.
But Cleveland-Seattle was just an appetizer for “Monday Night Football.” Against Jacksonville, the Ravens’ first 22 plays netted 6 yards. Baltimore had nine drives in the first half, and the Ravens never got close to getting a first down on any of them. Four of Jacksonville’s first-half possessions gained negative yards; a fifth series ended in a fumble. After 30 minutes, the game featured five fumbles, four first downs and just 29 yards of passing. Baltimore got its first first down with five minutes left in the third quarter. The two teams combined for 185 passing yards, the fewest in any game this season. Joe Flacco threw for only 137 yards on 38 pass attempts; only Jesse Palmer, Bobby Hoying, Kent Graham, Carson Palmer and Tommy Maddox have gained fewer yards on so many attempts since 1970. The Jaguars rookie quarterback Blaine Gabbert wasn’t any better — the Jaguars gained 73 passing yards on 24 pass plays. Once again, don’t write the obituary on pass defense just yet.
Another Big Day for Forte
Matt Forte leads the league with 1,091 yards from scrimmage in seven games. As Michael David Smith pointed out this week, his production as a percentage of his team’s offense is even more impressive. In a sloppy game against Tampa Bay in London, Forte was the game’s lone star. This year, he has accounted for 43.6 percent of the Bears’ 2,505 yards from scrimmage. Maurice Jones-Drew (39.3%, Jacksonville), Fred Jackson (38.0%, Buffalo) and Ray Rice (37.1%, Baltimore) are the only other players that have gained at least a third of their team’s offense. If Forte can keep up this pace, he will become the 19th player since 1940 to accumulate at least 40 percent of his team’s total yards from scrimmage.
Cornerback Heaven
The Kansas City Chiefs’ secondary took over a game Sunday. Left cornerback Brandon Flowers had two interceptions and returned one for a 58-yard touchdown. Right cornerback Brandon Carr intercepted a pass at the Kansas City 10-yard line to kill a Raiders drive before the half. Free safety Kendrick Lewis returned an interception 59 yards for a touchdown. Strong safety Jon McGraw had a fourth-quarter interception at the Chiefs’ 9-yard line to keep the shutout intact. Another defensive back, Travis Daniels, recorded Kansas City’s sixth interception of the day. What about Kansas City’s second-round pick from 2010, cornerback Javier Arenas? All he did was score a touchdown on offense, taking the snap as the Chiefs’ Wildcat quarterback and running 7 yards for the score.
Haven’t I Seen This Before?
In Matt Ryan’s first N.F.L. start, in Week 1 of the 2008 season, his first pass was a 62-yard touchdown strike to Michael Jenkins. In Christian Ponder’s first N.F.L. start, this past Sunday against the Packers, his first pass was a 72-yard connection to Michael Jenkins.
Gonzalez Reaches New Heights, as Do His Chasers
Tony Gonzalez caught five passes against the Lions, giving him 1,104 receptions for his career. That moved him into second place in N.F.L. history, behind only Jerry Rice. An incredible accomplishment for anyone, and Gonzalez is the only tight end in the top 20 on the career receptions list. He’s the greatest tight end in the history of the game, in my view, and deserves to be the first tight end to be inducted on the first Hall of Fame ballot.
But the record books may not be kind to Gonzalez for long. Antonio Gates became just the second tight end to catch 70 touchdown passes, and is “only” 22 touchdown catches away from tying Gonzalez (Gonzalez figures to make a run at the 100-touchdown mark).
With five catches against the Rams on Sunday, Jason Witten continues to be hot on the trail. Both Gonzales and Witten were rookies at age 21, and each missed only one game in their first eight seasons. That makes it easy to compare the two as Witten’s career progresses. Witten played in his 133rd game and has 653 receptions for 7,416 receiving yards. After 133 career games, Gonzalez had 595 receptions for 7,114 yards.
Burress Pulls a Bettis
Plaxico Burress played the role of hero Sunday, scoring all three Jets touchdowns to help lead a comeback against the San Diego Chargers. He also played the role of vulture: Burress became just the third player since 1960 to catch three touchdown passes while failing to gain at least 30 receiving yards. The first two? Tight ends Mack Alston (1975, Houston) and Eric Green (1990, Pittsburgh). Burress’s stat line for the day: 4 receptions, 25 yards, 3 touchdowns. His longest catch of the day was a 15-yard grab, on the one play in which he did not score. All of Burress’s touchdowns came from within the 5, making him just the fourth player in league history to score three touchdowns from inside that mark (Lance Alworth, Kellen Winslow Sr. and Marvin Harrison were the others). It called to mind Jerome Bettis’s 2004 season, when he had one game with 5 carries for 1 yard and 3 touchdowns and another with 6 carries for 9 yards and 2 touchdowns. Bettis led those Steelers in touchdowns, finishing ahead of… Plaxico Burress.
Emmitt Smith, Tony Dorsett… and DeMarco Murray
Tony Dorsett owned the Cowboys’ rookie single-game rushing record; he rushed for 206 yards against the Eagles in 1977. Emmitt Smith set the Cowboys’ rushing record with 233 yards, also against Philadelphia, in 1993. DeMarco Murray pushed both of them aside Sunday. His 253 rushing yards on 25 carries were the second most by a rookie since 1960, trailing Adrian Peterson. He joined Corey Dillon and Jamaal Charles as the only players in that span with 250 rushing yards on over 10 yards per carry.
On the other side of the coin, the Rams came into the week last in rushing defense. The Cowboys proceeded to run for more yards (294) in Week 7 than any team since the Raiders in Week 7 of the 2009 season. St. Louis is just the third team in the past 15 seasons to allow at least 1,100 combined rushing yards in their first six games.
Rodgers Fantastic; Packers’ Pass Defense Opportunistic: For Now
Aaron Rodgers is starting to enter the rarefied air that Peyton Manning used to inhabit. He’s so good, no one cares when he’s great. Otto Graham and Norm Van Brocklin are the only two players to average over 10 yards per pass during an N.F.L. season, and both of them did it in eras when teams played fewer games and passed less frequently. Small sample sizes enable incredible performances in rate statistics, and Graham and Van Brocklin are good examples of that. But Rodgers is averaging 9.9 yards per attempt after throwing 238 passes, nearly matching the performances of Graham and Van Brocklin over full seasons. And thanks to a sparkling 20:3 touchdown to interception ratio, Rodgers has the single highest adjusted yards per attempt average of any player in any season, with a minimum of 230 pass attempts. Rodgers has averaged at least 10 adjusted yards per pass attempt in six of seven games this season, a feat no quarterback had accomplished in more than four of his team’s first seven games. His worst performance of the season so far was a career day for many quarterbacks: 28 for 38 for 297 yards, 3 touchdowns and 1 interception, in a 27-17 win in Chicago.
The Packers’ pass defense has been nowhere near as productive as Green Bay’s offensive counterpart. The pass defense has been more opportunistic than anything, leading the league in interceptions while ranking fourth in interception rate (interceptions per attempt). The Packers are catching 4.8 percent of opposing passes this season, trailing only the Bills, Chiefs and Jets. All four teams should expect their rates to regress toward the league average for the remainder of the season. While those four teams have interception rates between 4.8 percent and 5.6 percent, no other team has intercepted even 4 percent of opposing passes.
History says that interceptions are largely random. From 1990 to 2010, 69 teams had interceptions rates of at least 5.0 percent after seven games. On average, those teams caught 5.8 percent of opposing passes while the league average rates for teams in those seasons was 3.3 percent. But over the remaining nine games, those teams had interception rates of just 3.7 percent (with the league average remaining at 3.3 percent). Those 69 teams went from interception rates that were 72 percent above league average to just 13 percent, essentially overnight. The Packers have the league’s best record, while the Bills have been one of the league’s surprise teams; the Jets have won three of their four games this season thanks in large part to Darrelle Revis interceptions, while the Chiefs won their third straight game after picking off six Oakland passes. If those four teams want their success to continue, they will need more than interception luck the rest of the way.
Foster, Johnson, Going in Opposite Directions
In 2009, the Titans’ Chris Johnson rushed for 2,000 yards and set the single-season record with 2,509 yards from scrimmage. That year, Arian Foster was on the Texans’ practice squad for most of the season. In 2010, Foster led the league in rushing yards, rushing yards per game, rushing touchdowns, yards from scrimmage and total touchdowns. The contrast between the two players’ career trajectories was on full display on Sunday. Johnson rushed 10 times for 18 yards, and his 2.2 yards per carry average is last among the 50 qualifying rushers. Johnson could only sit and watch from the sideline as Foster shredded the Titans’ defense, becoming the first player since at least 1960 with 115 rushing yards, 115 receiving yards and 3 touchdowns.
I Do Not Pretend to Understand Tim Tebow
For the first 54.5 minutes on Sunday, the Broncos looked completely inept on offense: 11 drives, 158 yards gained, 8 punts, 2 missed field goals and one fumble lost. Tim Tebow had completed 4 of 14 passes for 40 yards, while rushing six times for 48 yards. Including sacks, he was responsible for 25 plays and had gained a total of 61 yards. The Broncos had not scored a point. In the last five and a half minutes, Tebow completed 9 of 13 passes for 121 yards and 2 touchdowns and ran twice for 17 rushing yards. That doesn’t include the game-tying 2-point conversion, scored on a quarterback off-tackle power run (great explanation by Smart Football’s Chris Brown differentiating this from a quarterback draw). He went from Ryan Leaf to Aaron Rodgers seemingly out of nowhere, and provided even more drama for both the Tebow haters and the Tebow fan club. But as the Big Lead’s Jason Lisk points out, if not for a miraculous onside kick recovery, the talk of the day would be Tebow’s miserable performance, slightly hidden by some garbage-time numbers. Such is the saga of Tebow.
A cautionary note: It was hard not to have flashbacks to Vince Young’s fantastic comeback against the Cardinals in 2009, when he led the Titans on an 18-play, 99-yard drive in the final minutes of the game. On the last play, Young converted his third fourth down of the drive by throwing the winning touchdown pass. Young outdueled Matt Leinart – again — and led the Titans from 0-6 to 5-6. He received many of the accolades that Tebow is getting now, with comments that his “will to win” and intangibles mattered more than his passing prowess. The clock eventually struck midnight for Young, but don’t believe anyone who tells you he knows how the Tebow story will end.
Mike Wallace and Steve Smith Channel Their Inner Maynard and Alworth
From 1960 to 2010, only 17 players gained at least 700 receiving yards on 20-yards-per-reception in their team’s first seven games. Nine of those performances came during the high-flying 1960s, with over half of those coming from players in the American Football League. With the rise of the West Coast offense and other horizontal passing systems, only one player hit those thresholds between 1993 and 2009: Isaac Bruce. Brandon Lloyd caught 35 for 709 in the first seven games of 2010, and both Steve Smith and Mike Wallace are having big seasons as deep threats so far this season. Wallace led the league in yards per reception as a rookie in 2009, then increased his average reception length in 2010. But he has never been as productive as frequently as he has been this year. Smith had some huge years in the middle of last decade, and is now experiencing a career revival with the strong-armed rookie Cam Newton. Against the Redskins, Smith caught 7 passes for 143 yards, his fourth game of the season with at least 140 receiving yards and a 20-yards-per-carry average. Playing in Arizona, Wallace set a franchise record by catching a 95-yard touchdown pass, and became the first player since Isaac Bruce in 2000 with six straight games with at least one 40-yard reception. Don Maynard and Lance Alworth would be proud.
New Orleans and Manning Witness Another 62-7 rout
There have been two games in the history of the regular season to end with the score 62-7. Both games happened in New Orleans, with a dejected Manning on the losing team’s sideline wishing for better teammates.
In 1973, it was the Atlanta Falcons who roughed up the Saints in the season opener. Atlanta would go on to lose its next three games and score only 15 combined points, but the Falcons were near-flawless against New Orleans. Archie Manning ended the game on the sideline, after throwing five interceptions in 13 pass attempts.
The other game happened on Sunday night, also in New Orleans. This time the Saints rolled, making a mockery of a prime-time matchup. Archie’s son Peyton looked on, helpless, as the Colts continued their descent into the bottom of the league.
Before the season, I thought that the Manningless-Colts would look out of sync and be without an identity, and could stumble to 3-13. That seems to have been an optimistic viewpoint.
As for the Saints, all of their aspirations remain in front of them. They remain a top Super Bowl contender, and Drew Brees’s presence means they can beat any team in the league. Brees now has 2,477 passing yards, the most since 1960 (and almost certainly ever) by a quarterback after his team’s first seven games. He’s over 400 yards ahead of where Dan Marino was at this point in 1984. That may be surpassed next week, though, if Tom Brady can pass for 315 yards or more against the Steelers.
Chase Stuart contributes to Pro-Football-Reference.com and to Footballguys.com.
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