Jets (2-1) at Ravens (2-1)
Sunday, 8:20 p.m.
Line: Ravens by 3.5.
Any team coached by a member of the Ryan family does not so much play a 16-game schedule as careen from bitter rivalry to bitter rivalry, each game becoming the kind of over-boiled grudge match usually settled with suplexes and folding chairs at ringside. It happened to Buddy Ryan’s Eagles, and it has happened to Rex Ryan’s Jets.
Jets-Cowboys becomes Rex Ryan against Rob Ryan. Jets-Patriots becomes Rex Ryan against Bill Belichick. Jets-Ravens devolves into Rex Ryan against the team that declined to promote him to head coach when he was its defensive coordinator. Next time the Jets face the Raiders, it will be Rex Ryan against the team that broke his quarterback’s nose. Even Rex Ryan could not muster a feud with the Jaguars, but Joe Namath got into the act this week, so if you play the current Jets against the 1968 version in a video game, that is now a grudge match, too.
Granted, the presence of the ex-Ravens Bart Scott, Jim Leonhard and Derrick Mason on the Jets roster does give the game a familiarity-breeds-contempt angle. “This is a family game, but it’s also a heated rivalry,” said Ravens defensive end Terrell Suggs, perhaps not realizing that Jets charity softball tournaments are also heated rivalries. “You’ve got to go beat up on the ones you love.” In other words, this time it’s personal. Just like all the other times. Pick: Jets.
Steelers (2-1) at Texans (2-1)
Sunday, 1 p.m.
Line: Texans by 4.
The season often starts this way for the Steelers. They grind out a couple of seemingly difficult wins against bad teams. They lose to the Ravens, or someone Ravens-like. We question their offensive line and remark that the team is not deploying the classic Steelers running game, because in Pittsburgh it is always 1978 and the only way to win is to hand off 40 times.
The Steelers have had a suspect offensive line for the entire Ben Roethlisberger era, made worse by Roethlisberger’s belief that getting rid of the ball on time causes back pimples. Bruce Arians has been the offensive coordinator for five years, and he has always been more pass-oriented than the guys with Franco Harris collector’s edition beer steins would like. The Steelers have reached two Super Bowls in four years through a succession of ugly wins. It is time to stop being surprised. Pick: Steelers.
Lions (3-0) at Cowboys (2-1)
Sunday, 1 p.m.
Line: Cowboys by 1.
The Cowboys botched several center snaps on Monday night, and Tony Romo knows why: the Redskins were imitating his pre-snap cadence. That’s right: there is a Romo voice impersonator on the Redskins, or perhaps the team purchased one of those “Romo Calls” from a sporting goods store (“Blow into it, and American Idol runners-up flock to your position!”) The Romo Karaoke did not stop the Cowboys’ six field goals because no one knows what kicker Dan Bailey sounds like. (The holder Mat McBriar actually calls for the snap, but his voice was a mystery, too.)
Lions wide receiver Calvin Johnson scored two touchdowns in each of his first three games, in part because opponents have an illogical impulse to leave him single-covered in clutch situations. The Cowboys will not make that mistake. “You always have to account for Calvin,” safety Gerald Sensabaugh said. Maybe he should tell the Vikings and the Chiefs. Pick: Cowboys.
Panthers (1-2) at Bears (1-2)
Sunday, 1 p.m.
Line: Bears by 6.5.
It’s time for advanced algebra with Mike Martz. Let x represent the amount of control Martz has over an offensive gameplan. Let f(x) represent running plays and g(x) represent passing plays. As x increases, the ratio of f(x) to g(x) is an asymptote approaching zero. Meanwhile, h(x), Lovie Smith’s blood pressure, and p(x), Jay Cutler’s health insurance premiums, increase exponentially. We would compute the rate of change in the Bears’ playoff hopes as Martz’s influence increases, but this is no place for derivative humor. For the Bears, Martz and his 4-to-1 pass-run ratios will always be an x-factor. Pick: Panthers.
Bills (3-0) at Bengals (1-2)
Sunday, 1 p.m.
Line: Bills by 3.
“The fandemonium is running high in Buffalo,” began a WIVB television segment about the Bills early last week. The nearly three-minute segment revealed that Bills merchandise is flying off the shelves, that Ryan Fitzgerald jerseys are on back order, that Bills fans are hanging out at the bar more but drinking less (“They don’t have to drink away their sorrows,” said the tavern manager Jill Vecchio, after wiping a bar top that looked perfectly clean in the first place) and that there is precious little else to talk about in greater Buffalo besides a three-game winning streak. One fan was said to be heading to an “exclusive Bills-only watering hole in Florida,” which makes you wonder how some business models survive the recession while other, saner ones fail. Pick: Bills.
Patriots (2-1) at Raiders (2-1)
Sunday, 4:15 p.m.
Line: Patriots by 4.
Raiders linebacker Rolando McClain said during the week that the Patriots were “just a finesse team.” Tom Brady, perhaps realizing that the criticism hit too close to home, immediately consented to the most famous buzzcut since Elvis Presley was drafted in 1957. The high ‘n’ tight Brady can take solace in the fact that only successful teams are accused of being “finesse,” often by grumbling opponents who fail to notice that their own offenses consist largely of end-arounds and cutesy option plays. Pick: Patriots.
Redskins (2-1) at Rams (0-3)
Sunday, 1 p.m.
Line: Redskins by 1.5.
Like the first frost of autumn, the first unhinged DeAngelo Hall rant was late to arrive this year. But once it came, it delivered everything we have come to expect in a Redskins player interview: frustration, profanity and more than a hint of insubordination. Hall criticized the coordinator Jim Haslett’s blitz packages, saying “you don’t have to be a rocket scientist to figure it out after a while.” Rocket scientists could not track a 6.5-ton satellite as it crashed to the earth last week, so they might find Haslett’s defense rather befuddling. Rams quarterback Sam Bradford has a degree in that most reliably predictive of all disciplines (finance), which may explain why he so often looks surprised. Pick: Redskins
49ers (2-1) at Eagles (1-2)
Sunday, 1 p.m.
Line: Eagles by 8.5.
X-rays on Michael Vick’s right hand revealed that the Eagles’ linebackers are terrible. The Eagles took eventual action, benching Casey Matthews in favor of Brian Rolle in a panic-scented move. Vick says that there is a “100 percent chance” he will play despite a tender nonthrowing hand. Speaking of percentages, the folks at FootballOutsiders.com have determined that the 49ers have a 74.7 percent chance of reaching the postseason; only the Packers and the Lions have better odds. The percentages are determined by feeding statistics and schedules to a computer, watching as the computer gains sentience and weeps at the fate of the Seahawks, the Cardinals and the Rams, then drawing the obvious conclusion. Pick: Eagles.
Vikings (0-3) at Chiefs (0-3)
Sunday, 1 p.m.
Line: Vikings by 1.5.
The Vikings have now blown halftime leads of 17-7, 17-0, and 20-0, and have been outscored, 67-6, in second halves and overtime. Coach Leslie Frazier and the offensive coordinator Bill Musgrave have made plenty of questionable decisions late in games. Why leave Calvin Johnson single-covered in overtime? Why work Adrian Peterson into the ground, then hand off to Toby Gerhart on fourth-and-1? The Vikings can defeat the Chiefs without solving these riddles. After that, their fans are advised to tape the games and watch them backward so they can enjoy the spirited comebacks. Pick: Vikings.
Saints (2-1) at Jaguars (1-2)
Sunday, 1 p.m.
Line: Saints by 7.
The Jaguars defensive coordinator Mel Tucker tore a quadriceps muscle while goofing off with other coaches after practice. Coach Jack Del Rio talked Tucker and the offensive coordinator Dirk Koetter into fielding punts from a JUGS machine, and things went horribly awry. Thank heavens they did not opt for skeet shooting instead. Del Rio was later seen grabbing the JUGS machine by the collar, getting up in its grill and shouting “You fool! That ball was meant for Koetter!” Tucker will miss this week’s game, but defensive coordinators do not do much against the Saints anyway, except stand around and contemplate futility. Pick: Saints.
Titans (2-1) at Browns (2-1)
Sunday, 1 p.m.
Line: Browns by 1.
The Titans’ passing attack has been surprisingly efficient in the early weeks, but that may change now that Kenny Britt has torn an anterior cruciate ligament. Britt had 17 receptions for 289 yards and 3 touchdowns, picking up much of the offensive slack left by Chris Johnson, who is still struggling to average more than one body length per carry. “It’s not like we can magically create another Kenny Britt,” quarterback Matt Hasselbeck said during the week. If they could, the Titans would win the first-ever Nobel Prize in Traffic Violations. Pick: Browns.
Falcons (1-2) at Seahawks (1-2)
Sunday, 4:05 p.m.
Line: Falcons by 4.5.
The Falcons have surrendered 13 sacks in three games, prompting Coach Mike Smith to consider personnel changes: left tackle Sam Baker is a leading candidate to be benched if there is trouble Sunday. Meanwhile, on the police blotter, kicker Matt Bryant got his stolen golf clubs back. A Chinese food deliveryman swiped the clubs from Bryant’s garage, then traded the clubs for drugs — who knew there was even an exchange rate? The police eventually tracked the stolen clubs by their serial numbers on the Internet, untangling one of the most pathetic webs of crime ever spun. Bryant’s prized Scotty Cameron putter, like the Falcons’ pass protection, was still missing at press time. Pick: Falcons.
Giants (2-1) at Cardinals (1-2)
Sunday, 4:05 p.m.
Line: Giants by 1.
The Giants’ injury report arrived in the in-box this week, and it did not crash the server, there was no “low memory” error and there was no need to change toner cartridges twice while printing it up. Those are positive signs: Mario Manningham and Osi Umenyiora are back at practice, and additions are finally starting to outnumber subtractions. Eli Manning is fifth in the league in quarterback rating, and the Giants host the Seahawks after Sunday’s journey to Arizona, where Kevin Kolb is fading a little every week, running back Beanie Wells is banged up and the local fans are distracted by the Diamondbacks. At this rate, Tom Coughlin may be almost cheerful by November. Pick: Giants.
Dolphins (0-3) at Chargers (2-1)
Sunday, 4:15 p.m.
Line: Chargers by 7.
Reggie Bush Rationalization Season is upon us, a time to examine all of the underlying reasons for Bush’s slow start while missing the main reason: he simply is not very good. “This last game, I got caught pressing. I’ve got to be patient,” Bush said Wednesday. And the Wednesday before that. And most Wednesdays in 2009 and 2010. Tony Sparano wants his staff to “do a better job of getting Reggie in space, try to get Reggie touches early.” Bush fumbled twice in the first half against the Browns, once on a pitch to the outside that gave him plenty of space in which to bobble. The Dolphins signed running back Steve Slaton this week. He’s a small, shifty back who has had some brushes with greatness but has reliability issues. They must be trying to complete the set. Pick: Chargers.
Broncos (1-2) at Packers (3-0)
Sunday, 4:15 p.m.
Line: Packers by 12.5.
The Packers’ midweek injury list was long. Running back Ryan Grant (kidneys) and tackle Bryan Bulaga (knee) are unlikely to play. Tight end Jermichael Finley and three key players in the secondary (Nick Collins, Charles Woodson and Tramon Williams) were all either out or limited in practice as of Wednesday. The Packers had a similar injury rash last season, and they won the Super Bowl by replacing their starters with other team’s castoffs. Any general manager who releases a practice squad player right now is simply playing into Ted Thompson’s hands. Pick: Packers.
Colts (0-3) at Buccaneers (2-1)
Monday, 8:30 p.m.
Line: Buccaneers by 10.
The two franchises that Tony Dungy helped to build are going in different directions. The Buccaneers are an up-and-coming team with lots of quality players but few superstars. The Colts are scotch-taping Kerry Collins together in what is becoming an increasingly depressing farce of an effort to survive without Peyton Manning. Dungy has become a best-selling author since leaving the Colts back when Manning was healthy and the supporting cast was capable. Dungy’s next inspirational book should be titled “Distancing Yourself from Disaster.” Pick: Buccaneers.
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