Jason and Justin Sablich are here to help you with your fantasy football team. The Sablich brothers will provide fantasy football advice throughout the season on this blog and on Twitter (@5thDownFantasy).
If you submit one of the 50 most accurate responses this week, you can win a prize from FantasyPros.com.
The Seattle Seahawks unleashed “Beast Mode” last week against Dallas and Marshawn Lynch (SEA) owners benefited as the running back trounced the Cowboys for 135 yards and a score, the third-highest fantasy total among RBs in Week 9. The performance prompted Ravens Coach John Harbaugh to say that Lynch is “definitely a top 2 or 3 running back in the National Football League.” Was that the same Marshawn Lynch who ran for just 24 yards on 16 carries a week earlier against the Bengals? Let’s not get too carried away here. Lynch has been way too inconsistent to be considered a top-rate fantasy running back going forward and he is among our unfavorable matchup picks in Week 10 against Baltimore’s third-ranked run defense.
View our Week 10 rankings here.
Favorable/Unfavorable Quarterback Matchups
Favorable
Mark Sanchez (NYJ) vs. NE — The Patriots rank dead last in pass defense and have yielded consecutive 20-point, 2-touchdown games over the last two weeks to Eli Manning and Ben Roethlisberger. Sanchez tossed two touchdowns in his first meeting with New England this year, and his offense has improved considerably since then.
Matt Cassel (KC) vs. DEN — Starting this guy would require a forgiving short-term memory, but in Cassel’s defense, he really didn’t have much time to throw the ball against Miami. Be forewarned that Denver’s pass rushing duo of Von Miller and Elvis Dumervil appear to be finally clicking, with 2 sacks and 5 hits on Carson Palmer last week. But Palmer still managed to throw for 322 yards and 3 TDs, and nobody is allowing more fantasy points to quarterbacks this year, so the matchup is there if you believe he can bounce back.
Joe Flacco (BAL) vs. SEA — Flacco’s surprisingly solid 300-yard game against the Steelers’ elite pass defense marks the fourth time he’s reached that mark this season. A good game from this inconsistent quarterback might not be so shocking this week, as the Seahawks have allowed 4 TDs and 19.5 fantasy points a game to quarterbacks over the last two weeks.
Christian Ponder (MIN) vs. GB — It seems like Green Bay is always involved in a shootout and opposing quarterbacks have benefited, with a 22-point fantasy average this season. Ponder racked up 19 fantasy points against the Packers in Week 7, throwing for 219 yards and two touchdowns.
Unfavorable
Josh Freeman (TB) vs. HOU — Freeman has been hard to count on in a good matchup, let alone a bad one, and the Texans represent the latter, yielding the fourth fewest points to opposing quarterbacks this season. Drew Brees has been the only one to surpass the 20-point mark against this unit, and Houston hasn’t allowed a multiple TD day to the position since Week 5 (Jason Campbell).
Tom Brady (NE) vs. NYJ — Sit Tom Brady this week? Maybe if you have Eli Manning on your bench. The Jets are the worst matchup a quarterback can have this season. Opposing quarterbacks are averaging just eight fantasy points a game. Brady has been interception-prone as well of late, throwing five of them in his last three games.
Jay Cutler (CHI) vs. DET — Cutler produced a solid stat line in the Bears’ upset win over the Eagles Monday night (208 yards, 2 TDs), and his offensive line didn’t allow a sack for the first time this season. But we still feel Cutler is best suited for QB2 duty this week. The Lions are yielding just 13 points a game to the position, and Cutler was nothing special in his first meeting with Detroit (16 fantasy points).
Andy Dalton (CIN) vs. PIT — Three touchdown passes on a tough Titans secondary was mighty impressive last weekend, but he’s still a risky start against a tougher Steelers secondary allowing just 14 fantasy points a week through the air.
Favorable/Unfavorable Running Back Matchups
Favorable
Ben Tate (HOU) vs. TB — After racking up 115 yards on 12 carries against the Browns, Tate has proved he can be a viable fantasy option despite a limited workload. Tampa Bay allows the fourth-most fantasy points to the position and will be further hurting with the loss of DT Gerald McCoy for the rest of the season. Tate is a solid flex play this weekend.
Mike Tolbert (SD) vs. OAK — The Raiders are fresh off a 168 yard beat-down from a banged up Willis McGahee and have allowed the third-highest fantasy average to running backs this season. Ryan Mathews is expected to return for Thursday’s game, but the Chargers could initially choose to go easy on his workload after a solid Week 9 outing from Tolbert against the Packers (83 yards, 1 TD, 4 receptions, 59 yards).
Chris Johnson (TEN) vs. CAR — Johnson showed signs of life in Week 9, posting his highest YPG (4.6) of the season against a tough Cincinnati run defense. But with just 9 yards on 5 carries in the second half, it would be premature to say the tide is turning. It would be a good idea to keep him active, however, as no one allows more fantasy points to running backs than the Panthers.
Steven Jackson (STL) vs. CLE — Jackson is looking for his third consecutive 100-yard game this weekend, and with the Browns on the menu, odds are looking good. Cleveland’s 30th ranked run defense has allowed three 100-yard rushers in just two weeks (Foster, Tate, and Gore), and has allowed running backs to reach that mark six times in eight games this season.
Unfavorable
Rashard Mendenhall (PIT) vs. CIN — A fourth-quarter touchdown saved owners from another mediocre outing, and with just 13 carries in each of his last 3 games, he’s likely going to need to reach pay dirt again in order to be a worthwhile start against the N.F.L’s second-ranked run defense (3.3 yards a carry).
LeGarrette Blount (TB) vs. HOU — The Texans’ fourth-ranked run defense is holding opposing running games to a 91-yard average, but the bigger question may be how many attempts Blount actually sees this week. The Texans lead the N.F.L. in time of possession, thanks to their elite running game, and Blount has averaged just 11.5 carries over his last two games. Similar power backs such as Rashard Mendenhall and Daniel Thomas have been held out of the end zone against Houston, and have managed just an 8-point fantasy average.
Ahmad Bradshaw/Brandon Jacobs (NYG) vs. SF — At this point, nobody is sure if Bradshaw will suit up this week after missing Wednesday’s practice, but neither back will be a good option against the N.F.L.’s best run-stopping unit (70 YPG, 0 TD).
Favorable/Unfavorable Wide Receiver Matchups
Favorable
Laurent Robinson (DAL) vs. BUF — Tony Romo has recently taken a liking to Robinson, even when Miles Austin was on the playing field, as the two have paired up for 135 yards and two touchdowns on 13 targets over the last two games. With Austin expected to miss the next 2-4 games, and the Bills allowing 22 fantasy points a game to opposing pass-catchers, the arrow is pointing straight up.
DeSean Jackson (PHI) vs. ARZ — ”Decoy” Jackson continues to blame defensive game plans for his lack of production, which might have worked three weeks ago, but it’s starting to get old. No excuses this week, as the Cardinals ‘suspect secondary has allowed the sixth-most fantasy points to receivers this season.
Steve Breaston (KC) vs. DEN — Breaston is coming off his best game of the season vs. Miami (7 rec., 115 yards) and has an outstanding matchup this week. Opposing teams’ secondary wideouts have tallied an 11.8 fantasy average over the course of eight games against the Broncos, who are considered the best matchup a receiver can have.
Anquan Boldin (BAL) vs. SEA — Boldin was targeted a team-high 11 times in the Ravens’ big win Sunday night and he managed to haul in 7 of those for 88 yards, a respectable outing considering what he was up against. Seattle has allowed opposing team’s number one receivers an average of 8.6 fantasy points this season, so a similar if not better stat line from Boldin could be expected in Week 10, making him a rock-solid WR2 this week.
Unfavorable
A.J. Green (CIN) vs. PIT — Pittsburgh’s Ike Taylor will present the biggest challenge the rookie has faced all season. Teams’ No. 1 receivers are averaging a measly 5 fantasy points through nine games against him, including the likes of Wes Welker, Larry Fitzgerald and Andre Johnson.
Larry Fitzgerald (ARZ) vs. PHI — No. 1 receivers average a minuscule 3.3 fantasy points in eight games played against the Eagles, and he’ll most likely be catching passes from John Skelton again.
Nate Washington (TEN) vs. CAR — Washington is banged up with a hip injury but is still expected to play. That doesn’t mean you have to start him, especially since Carolina is allowing the fourth-fewest points to the position this season.
Brandon Lloyd (STL) vs. CLE — Mark Clayton is returning this week to steal some targets, and his matchup with Cleveland ranks in as the worst one a receiver can have this season.
Favorable/Unfavorable Tight End Matchups
Favorable
Greg Olsen vs. TEN — He had his best game of the season prior to Week 8’s bye and he could pick up where he left off, considering the Titans have given up the fourth-most points to the position this season.
Unfavorable
Rob Gronkowski (NE) vs. NYJ — Gronk managed just 3 fantasy points in Week 5 against the Jets, and New York is holding the position to a 6.7 fantasy average, which is considered the sixth-worst tight end matchup in fake football land.
Favorable/Unfavorable Defense/Special Teams Matchups
Favorable
Eagles vs. Arizona, Lions vs. Chicago, Chargers vs. Oakland, Texans vs. Tampa Bay, Cowboys vs. Buffalo
Unfavorable
Saints vs. Atlanta, Bears vs. Detroit, Bengals vs. Pittsburgh, Titans vs. Carolina, Falcons vs. New Orleans
This post has been revised to reflect the following correction:
Correction: November 10, 2011
An earlier version of this article misstated Christian Ponder's team as Indianapolis.
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