It’s now the Jets’ turn to represent New York against the Patriots. The twist in this matchup is that the Jets think they’re a running team, when they’re actually more productive when passing. And the Patriots are thought of as a sophisticated finesse passing offense, when they’re also one of the best running teams in the league.
The Jets’ Expected Points Added (EPA) — a measure of net scoring capacity — totals 0.02 when running and 14.1 when passing. And on a per play basis, passing is remarkably more effective than running for the Jets.
The Patriots’ running game is strong, with a solid 4.5 yards per carry (YPC) average and, more important, a 49 percent success rate (SR). The last time the teams met, running back BenJarvus Green-Ellis ran for 136 yards on 27 carries, good for 5.0 yards per carry and a 57 percent SR. Much of New England’s running success is because defenses are on their heels, focused on containing Welker, Hernandez and Gronkowski.
Here’s how both teams stack up at this point in the season:
In terms of predictive efficiency, the Jets rank 20th on offense and 5th on defense, while the Patriots rank 2nd on offense and 25th on defense. Both teams have had tough schedules, with the Patriots having a slightly tougher one. New England is reeling from two consecutive losses, but they’re the better team at the moment. The Jets have home-field advantage this time around, so the efficiency model is in agreement with the larger consensus that this game is a virtual tossup.
Here are the Game probabilities for Week 10.
(For more on the prediction model and its accuracy, see this post.
Brian Burke, a former Navy pilot who has taken up the less dangerous hobby of N.F.L. statistical analysis, operates Advanced NFL Stats, a blog about football, math and human behavior.
No comments:
Post a Comment