Brian Burke of Advanced NFL Stats had a suggestion for the Titans in August, when the team was locked in a contract dispute with running back Chris Johnson: “Take the $12 million per year, put it into your offensive line, and draft a couple 4th round RBs. You’ll thank me later.”
The free advice was ignored, and Tennessee appeared to make an expensive mistake by signing Johnson to a contract extension. Johnson has rushed for a measly 366 yards, averaging 3.0 yards per carry.
Now Burke has turned his attention to Matt Forte and “whether the Bears are better off locking him up for 6 years and $20 million guaranteed or spending that money elsewhere.” The advice is the same:
On one hand, Forte is having a career season as the epicenter of the Bears offense. On the other hand, he’ll be a 26-year old running back next season.
CJ2k, or CJ0.7k as he might be better known after this season, has highlighted the folly of handing over 10% of a team’s cap space to single RB. That’s just too many eggs in one basket for a position that simply does not drive wins and losses except in rare instances.
We don’t need to look at Chris Johnson or DeAngelo Williams to see the danger of giving huge guaranteed contracts to RBs. We only have to look at Forte himself. As we’ve seen with several RBs, they can go from thermonuclear hot one year to cold as a fish the next, even without injuries or switching teams, and Forte is no exception.
Forte went from one of the top performing RBs in 2008 to one of the worst in 2009. He then had a mediocre year in 2010, the year CHI made it to the NFC Championship Game. And now he’s back on top in 2011. Forte already had a Chris-Johnson-in-2011-like season in ’09, and there’s no reason he won’t do it again. In ’09, Forte gained 905 yards on 252 carries for a 3.6 YPC. He fumbled 6 times.
I know what you’re saying. The team around him was bad. His offensive line played awful. They didn’t “use him right.” He had some bad fumble luck. But that’s exactly my point. RB performance is highly variable and greatly dependent on offensive lines.
The Bears would be much better off franchise-tagging Forte and then moving on with a younger, cheaper back. That might seem unfair, but Forte still pockets millions of dollars, and with any luck will make a few million more down the road. Some might argue that there is value in “keeping him happy,” but I’m not so sure there is an reliable link between large guaranteed contracts and future performance. Just ask the Titans.
Extra point Is the Forte case different than the Johnson one? And could the Bears withstand a lengthy holdout from Forte before next season?
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