You get the sense, in reading Aaron Schatz’s explanation for how this is possible, that even he is scratching his head — at the same time as Rex Ryan would be nodding his.
In the weekly Football Outsider DVOA ratings, the Jets are the top-ranked team in the N.F.L.
Schatz, the creator of Football Outsiders, acknowledges that it’s not exactly a consensus opinion:
Obviously, this will be a bit controversial. It’s hard to find anyone out there who doesn’t rank undefeated Green Bay as the top team in the league right now, and even harder to find anyone willing to consider the Jets as being in that class.
Normally, the various advanced ratings systems on the Internets are mostly in agreement about which teams are overrated and underrated. Not this year. DVOA is going out on a limb with its Jets love. The Jets are tenth in the league in point differential. Pro-football-reference’s Simple Ratings System has the Jets ranked 11th. Jeff Sagarin has the Jets ranked eighth. Advanced NFL Stats doesn’t have its power ratings up as I write this but last week they had the Jets a mediocre 14th.
It’s only the second time in the 20-year history of the Football Outsider rating that the Jets are No. 1.
Schatz says the ranking reflects the Jets’ excellence on defense and special teams. And the offense has a high percentage of successful, or at least not negative, plays.
Extra point Last week, the Jets seemed to be fighting for their playoff lives. Had the Jets lost to the Bills, their chances of winning the division would have been around 2 percent, according to NFL-Forecast.com. Now they’re better than the Packers? Take a look at Schatz’s post and let us know what you think of his reasoning.
No comments:
Post a Comment