Jason and Justin Sablich are here to help you with your fantasy football team. The Sablich brothers will provide fantasy football advice throughout the season on this blog and on Twitter (@5thDownFantasy).
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How do you know it’s been a bad week for your team’s ground game? One clue is your punter and your lead running back gaining the same number of rushing yards. Yes, the finger is slowly inching toward the panic button for Chris Johnson owners, and losing Kenny Britt for the season is not going to make things any easier on Tennessee’s offense. Yet, despite his incredibly disappointing start to the season, you’ll find him on our favorable matchups list for Week 4. Continue reading to find out why.
Do you have a “start or sit” question? We are taking questions on Twitter. Follow us at @5thDownFantasy.
Favorable/Unfavorable Quarterback Matchups
Favorable
Eli Manning (NYG) vs. Arizona – While playing with a patchwork receiving corps against the talented Eagles secondary, Manning tossed four touchdowns in the Giants’ upset win over the Eagles. Raise your hand if you saw this one coming. Put your hand down because you’re lying. Manning gets his WR2 back (Mario Manningham) this week against the N.F.L.’s 8th worst passing defense, a much more favorable situation if you need to use him.
Matt Ryan (ATL) vs. Seattle –- This is not a great matchup on paper, as the Seahawks have been respectable against the pass so far. But their numbers might be a bit padded considering they played the 49ers in Week 1 and an inexperienced Kevin Kolb and the Cardinals in Week 3. With the Falcons at 1-2, they’re going to need a big game from Ryan this week, and we expect him to meet that challenge. Sure, his offensive line has been terrible, but Seattle hasn’t exactly been scaring quarterbacks with just five sacks. Ryan should still be considered a QB1 option in Week 4.
Jason Campbell (OAK) vs. New England
– Need a spot start this week? Campbell might be your guy. No team has allowed more fantasy points to quarterbacks through the first three weeks than New England. His supporting cast is starting to gel as well, with Denarius Moore quickly becoming a dangerous weapon in the passing game and tight end Kevin Boss returning to action last week. He may even get Jacoby Ford back for this one.
Unfavorable
Colt McCoy (CLE) vs. Tennessee – McCoy was shaky against Miami last week and hasn’t thrown for more than 213 yards in a game yet. He’s unlikely to top that mark against a stingy Titans defense allowing quarterbacks just 13 fantasy points per game, which is the second-lowest average after to Pittsburgh.
Joe Flacco (BAL) vs. Jets – The Ravens’ passing game surprised everyone last week, including the Rams secondary, which was caught off guard by speedster Torrey Smith. Surely Darrelle Revis and the Jets will take note of Flacco’s big day and we think that his pass-happy, Brady-esque outing was more of a fluke than a sign of things to come. Don’t forget that Ray Rice is still the best thing this offense has to offer. The Jets have allowed just 13.6 fantasy points a game to guys like Flacco.
Tony Romo (DAL) vs. Detroit – His weak fantasy numbers aside, Romo deserves a lot of respect for his gutsy Monday night performance. Playing with a broken rib is one thing, but leading your team to victory despite the horrible play of your offensive line and receivers is another. He’ll need to pull another rabbit out of his hat if his supporting cast doesn’t get it together in a hurry, with Ndamukong Suh (1 sack, 6 hurries, 1 deflected pass vs. MIN) and the rest of the Lions’ emerging defense coming to town (14 fantasy points per game to quarterbacks).
Matt Hasselbeck (TEN) vs. Cleveland – Losing a talent like Britt is going to have negative implications on Hasselbeck’s numbers. As John Glennon from the Tennessean points out, Hasselbeck was 14-of-15 passing for 163 yards with Britt on the field last week. His percentage went down considerably without him, going 12-of-22 for 148 yards. A road game against the Browns third-ranked secondary presents a tough challenge for this reeling offense.
Favorable/Unfavorable Running Back Matchups
Favorable
Matt Forte vs. Carolina –
Matt Forte ran for a career-low 2 yards on 9 carries against the Packers last Sunday. Give credit to the league’s best run defense, and put some blame on Mike Martz for completely abandoning the run in the second half. At least his hands kept his Week 3 outing from being a total fantasy disaster (7 receptions, 80 yards). He gets a great Week 4 matchup against a depleted Panthers defense that surrenders 19 fantasy points per game to running backs this season.
Chris Johnson (TEN) vs. Cleveland
– Johnson was expected to break out against a weak Denver run defense in Week 3 but managed just 21 yards on 13 carries. But there are a few good reasons to keep Johnson in your lineup this week: Cleveland has yielded 20 points a game to the position in 2011; he was active in the passing game last week (7 targets) and the Steelers are on deck for Week 5, meaning the Browns will be his last good matchup before the Titans Week 6 bye.
Tim Hightower (WASH) vs. St. Louis –
Giving up 174 yards a game on the ground makes the Rams the league’s worst run defense, which makes Hightower, who has averaged 13 fantasy points a game so far this season, a high-end RB2 start this week.
James Starks (GB) vs. Denver
– It was a Week 3 to forget for Starks and his owners, but things may be already looking up as Packers Coach Mike McCarthy told the media Wednesday that he doesn’t expect Ryan Grant to play Sunday. The matchup here is pretty inviting as well, with Denver giving up an even 100 yards a game through the first three weeks.
Unfavorable
Jahvid Best (DET) vs. Dallas – Averaging just 2.9 yards per carry through three weeks, Best has certainly struggled carrying the ball. While importance in the Lions’ passing game has made him worth a weekly start in your lineup, expect more of the same on the ground against the N.F.L.’s second-ranked run defense.
Peyton Hillis (CLE) vs. Tennessee
– Hillis is expected to return this week against a Titans unit that has been tough on the run, giving up just 3 yards a carry through the first three games. His backup, Montario Hardesty, is also expected to steal more carries going forward, but that might actually be a good thing considering the heavy workload Hillis has already endured.
Daniel Thomas (MIA) vs. San Diego —
Thomas has been outstanding since taking over in the Dolphins’ backfield and needs to be in your lineup despite his tough matchup with the Chargers this week (4th worst RB matchup, 13 points per game).
Maurice Jones-Drew (JAX) vs. New Orleans
– This is another guy too good to bench, but there is concern that the Saints could blow this one wide open, leaving Jaguars rookie quarterback Blaine Gabbert and Co. playing catch-up for most of the day. It’s a situation that doesn’t generally favor running backs.
Favorable/Unfavorable Wide Receiver Matchups
Favorable
Hakeem Nicks (NYG) vs. Arizona – Philadelphia did a fine job containing Nicks last Sunday, but with Manningham set to return this week, the Cardinals (9th best WR matchup) will have a much tougher time shutting him down. The Cardinals just allowed Sidney Rice to grab 8 balls for 109 yards in his Seahawks debut, and have yielded 25 fantasy points a game to wideouts on average.
Santonio Holmes (NYJ) vs. Baltimore –
Holmes saw just two targets in the Jets’ frustrating loss to the Raiders and was quick to criticize Brian Schottenheimer’s offensive game plan. But the Jets’ receivers didn’t exactly follow through on their eagerness to take on the Raiders’ struggling man-to-man coverage. Holmes will have to be much more involved this week if the Jets expect to win Sunday night in Baltimore, and we expect him to be.
Brandon Lloyd (DEN) vs. Green Bay –
Denver doesn’t figure to get much going on the ground against the league’s best run defense, but the Green Bay secondary has been beaten up badly the first three weeks, allowing the second most fantasy points to the position. Lloyd should see plenty of opportunities trying to keep up with the Packers’ explosive offense.
Percy Harvin (MIN) vs. Kansas City –
Harvin having played in nearly 75 percent of Minnesota’s offensive snaps against the Lions means somebody was listening to all the negative criticism last week about the Vikings’ best receiver not being on the field enough. The Chiefs allow plenty of fantasy points to receivers (24 points per game), and may be missing their best cornerback Brandon Flowers after he suffered a right leg injury against San Diego.
Unfavorable
Nate Washington (TEN) vs. Cleveland — The Browns cornerback Joe Haden has quickly developed into an unfriendly matchup for wideouts, shutting down A.J. Green, Reggie Wayne and Brandon Marshall through the first three weeks. With Britt missing from the Titans’ passing attack, the Browns secondary (5th worst matchup) will be able to focus its attention on stopping Washington.
Andre Johnson (HOU) vs. Pittsburgh – Johnson gets his worst receiver matchup so far this season as the Steelers have coughed up just 12 fantasy points a game to the position. We couldn’t bench him if we tried, though.
Steve Johnson (BUF) vs. Cincinnati – Johnson has been dealing with a groin injury, although you wouldn’t know it based on his excellent play (8th ranked fantasy receiver, 43 points). The Bengals represent the third worst matchup a receiver can have, but Johnson is too good to sit.
Torrey Smith (BAL) vs. Jets –
Smith had an amazing game last week and you might have grabbed him off the wire because of it, but it probably would be wise to sit him against a Jets’ secondary allowing just 14 points a game to opposing receivers.
Favorable/Unfavorable Tight End Matchups
Favorable
Greg Olsen (CAR) vs. Chicago –
Olsen beat out Jeremy Shockey in the targets (10 to 7) and turned in a nice fantasy day against Jacksonville with 7 catches for 57 yards and a touchdown. Sharing Cam Newton with Shockey doesn’t do Olsen’s fantasy value any favors, but he’ll still get his looks and his former team, the Bears, is allowing the third most fantasy points to opposing tight ends.
Randy McMichael (SD) vs. Miami –
Antonio Gates’s status is up in the air and there is talk that he is considering resting his ever-troublesome foot for several weeks. McMichael would still be a desperation start, even though the Dolphins have been the friendliest matchup to the position so far this season (16 points per game).
Unfavorable
Dustin Keller (NYJ) vs. Baltimore – Speaking of the Jets, this one is off to a great start, ranking in as the third best fantasy tight end behind Rob Gronkowski and Jermichael Finley heading into Week 4. His meeting with the Ravens will be tough, as they have allowed just 115 yards and 0 TDs so far this season, but sitting him isn’t an option unless you have the luxury of a Jason Witten or Jimmy Graham on your roster.
Favorable/Unfavorable Defense/Special Teams Matchups
Favorable
Buccaneers vs. Colts, Redskins vs. Rams, Saints vs. Jacksonville, Falcons vs. Seahawks, Bills vs. Bengals
Unfavorable
Dallas vs. Detroit, Pittsburgh vs. Houston, New England vs. Oakland, Cincinnati vs. Buffalo, San Fransisco vs. Philadelphia
Do you have a “start or sit” question? We are taking questions on Twitter. Follow us at @5thDownFantasy.
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