Jason and Justin Sablich are here to help you with your fantasy football draft. The Sablich brothers will provide fantasy football advice throughout the season on this blog and on Twitter (@5thDownFantasy).
Complete fantasy football ranking for all positions, including PPR formats, updated throughout the preseason.
We are avoiding some of these players on draft day because we don’t believe they will justify their hype, reputation, or current draft positions. We are avoiding others because of issues with consistency and health. Does that mean we think all of these guys will have horrible years? No. We simply want to maximize value when it comes to building our teams, while keeping the headaches and screaming to a minimum throughout the season.
Here are some players we’re putting a red flag next to on draft day.
Quarterback
Matt Schaub, HOU – Schaub has been a top-10 quarterback in standard scoring leagues over the last two seasons. So what is the problem? Having owned Schaub in a number of leagues last season, we can attest to how inconsistent he was in the first 10 weeks of the season. Schaub posted fewer than 15 fantasy points five times in that span. His first back-to-back weeks of 15-plus points did not come until Weeks 11 and 12.
Some may blame the health of Owen Daniels and Andre Johnson, but we think the success of Arian Foster has something more to do with his roller coaster statistical line. Schaub averaged 15.2 fantasy points a game when Foster rushed for at least 100 yards or more, compared with 20.9 when Foster failed to hit the century mark. If you expect Foster’s outstanding play to continue this year, as we do, then prepare for more games in 2011 in which Schaub and the passing game take a back seat.
Rookie Quarterbacks – We don’t mess around with rookie quarterbacks under normal circumstances as it is, but with the lockout-shortened off-season robbing everyone of valuable prep time, we’ll stay even farther away this year. In fact, it’s going to be extra tough for all first-year players to get up to speed, but the quarterback position is the most complex of them all and will be the one most affected.
Others to Avoid: Colt McCoy, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Alex Smith, Mark Sanchez and Jason Campbell.
Running Back
Maurice Jones-Drew, JAX – According to Jones-Drew himself, the coaching staff in Jacksonville is weary of his surgically repaired knee and wants Rashad Jennings to help shoulder more of the carries, although the team’s offensive coordinator, Dirk Koetter, claims there has not been talk about limiting his workload. Either way, it’s not exactly the kind of chatter you want surrounding a first-round pick in this year’s draft.
M.J.D. scored only five touchdowns last season, a drastic drop-off from the 16 he scored in 2009. Expecting a bounce back in that category may be wishful thinking as Jennings makes more sense from a physical standpoint at the goal line.
Ryan Grant, GB – Grant claims to have been informed that he is still the leader of the Packers’ backfield, but with James Starks’s stock rising thanks to a solid showing in last season’s Super Bowl, it won’t be until after training camp that we know for sure. Even if he does return as the primary back, a timeshare of sorts is to be expected, limiting the value of both backs.
Felix Jones, DAL – The Cowboys released Marion Barber, but this backfield remains crowded with Tashard Choice and the newly acquired Oklahoma star DeMarco Murray. If ownership is content with Jones as the starter, then why draft Murray in the third round? Maybe it’s because Jones was given the chance to start last year and didn’t exactly seize the opportunity. His yards per carry fell from 6.5 to 4.3 and he managed just two touchdowns. While Jones actually stayed on the field for a full season in 2010, he remains an injury risk and is not a good bet to receive many goal-line opportunities (six attempts in the last two years). We have no problems with Jones in PPR formats, but we’ll steer clear in standard scoring leagues.
Beanie Wells, ARZ – The Cardinals’ selection of a running back in the second round of the N.F.L. draft this year shouldn’t come as a total shock, considering their 86.8 yards per game on the ground in 2010 ranked last in the league. Wells’s horrific 3.4 yards per carry could help explain why they achieved such a lowly statline. Some may credit injuries for his sophomore slump, but even if Wells does manage to stay healthy this year, it won’t change the fact that he is a one-dimensional back who will get the hook down near the goal line.
BenJarvus Green-Ellis, NE
– Sharing the workload with Danny Woodhead is one thing, but now Green-Ellis will have the rookies Shane Vereen and Stevan Ridley to deal with as well. Expect a significant decrease in carries from the 229 he saw last season, which was already on the light side (15th over all).
Others to Avoid: Jonathan Stewart, Cedric Benson, Joseph Addai, Pierre Thomas, Marion Barber
Wide Receiver
Greg Jennings, GB
– As we pointed out earlier in our top-10 receiver rankings, Jennings was a major beneficiary of Jermichael Finley’s absence in 2010. With Finley in the lineup, he averaged 7.2 fantasy points per game. That number ballooned to 17.6 in the next five weeks without him. With Finley healthy and Jordy Nelson emerging, another top-five finish seems highly unlikely. But you’ll still have to pay a high price for him thanks to last year’s numbers.
Dwayne Bowe, KC
– Bowe’s second-place finish among receivers in 2010 was a pleasant surprise for his owners, but realize that most of his points came in bunches against some very soft secondaries. Over the course of the final five weeks, he disappeared, with 14 receptions and one touchdown against tougher defensive units. The schedule gets a lot stiffer this year for the Chiefs, and he could also be seeing some competition in the red zone with the addition of the 6-foot-4 receiver Jonathan Baldwin.
Sidney Rice, SEA – It’s going to be Charlie Whitehurst, Matt Leinhart or Tavaris Jackson playing catch with Rice this year in Seattle. That’s too bad for Rice, who is a big target with a lot of talent. But remember he was merely waiver wire fodder until Brett Favre helped put him on the map back in 2009. Rice is going to cost you a midround WR2 pick in most drafts, when in reality you are probably looking at WR3 production at best.
Marques Colston, NO – Another year, another arthroscopic knee surgery in the off-season for Colston. That brings the total to five if you are keeping score at home. Despite the injury risk, Colston’s big weeks are rather difficult to predict given the way Drew Brees spreads the ball around, and the 6-foot-8 Jimmy Graham, the team’s starting tight end, figures to cut into his red zone targets even more.
Hines Ward, PIT – Ward is a guy we’ve all grown comfortable with as a safe pick over the years, but the time has come to look the other way. The 35-year-old posted his worst numbers since 2000 (59 rec, 755 yds, 5 TDs) and the second-year wideout Emmanuel Sanders is primed to take away his starting gig as the WR2 in Pittsburgh this year.
Others to Avoid: Steve Smith (NYG), Donald Driver, Braylon Edwards, Mike Williams (SEA)
Tight End
Jason Witten, DAL – Tony Romo’s season-ending injury was a huge loss for the Dallas Cowboys, but Witten owners certainly weren’t shedding any tears. With John Kitna under center, Witten’s per-game catch average went from 4.9 to 6.5. He also received a big boost in red zone looks, which resulted in a career-high 9 TDs. CBSSports.com has Witten projected to finish third in standard leagues with 91 receptions, 1019 yards and 7 TDs. Considering Romo’s return and Dez Bryant’s rise to stardom, those numbers seem unrealistic. We still like Witten in PPR formats, as he should top 80 catches again, but in standard leagues we’ll target Jimmy Graham or Rob Gronkowski a few rounds later instead.
Tony Gonzalez, ATL – The 35-year-old appears to be slowing down as he posted his worst numbers since 1998, despite Atlanta’s fifth-ranked offense (70 rec, 656 yds, 6 TDs). With the rookie standout Julio Jones added to the mix this year, expect an even lower statline from the potential Hall of Famer.
Others to Avoid: Jeremy Shockey, John Carlson, Kevin Boss
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