We’ve seen monstrous passing numbers in this young N.F.L. season. With the rule changes and proliferation of spread offenses, those numbers will only climb in the coming years.
But how much do the numbers really mean?
Cam Newton is second in the league in passing yards (854). His Panthers are 0-2. The next four passing yards leaders – Philip Rivers, Drew Brees, Tony Romo and Matt Hasselbeck – are on teams that are 1-1. It’s too early to read much into the numbers, but it’s not too early to understand why the numbers are climbing and why it may not matter.
The N.F.L. is undergoing a defensive revolution. Ten years ago, the idea of “good defense” was to stop the other team from moving the ball. The 2000 Ravens were a brick wall that yielded just 970 yards on the ground (fewest for a 16-game schedule in league history). But today, teams don’t sustain offense with the traditional run-run-pass approach. New rules and improved athletes have led to an explosion in the passing game, making it too much to ask for a defense to hang in there and continuously stop an offense.
The idea of “good defense” has morphed from stopping the opponent to making big plays. The best way to do this is to trick an offense into making a mistake. This is why we’ve seen rapid growth in versatile and confounding 3-4 schemes that are predicated on disguise concepts and blitzes (especially out of sub-packages). This has been the defensive approach of the past two Super Bowl champions (the ’09 Saints were second in the N.F.C. in forced turnovers and the ’10 Packers were fifth; ahead of the Packers were the Steelers, Patriots, Giants, Bears and Eagles – all playoff teams save for the 10-6 Giants).
Creating big plays requires taking risks (which often means blitzing). Those risks are contributing to more passing yards. But passing yards don’t always lead to points. Defenses know that with space being limited, offenses can’t spread out and dictate terms of engagement in the red zone the same way they can between the 20s. Thus, in taking risks, defenses have embraced more of a “bend but don’t break” mentality.
A great illustration of how this revolution is playing out can be found in Cam Newton. In Week 1, he went up against a Cardinals defense that’s run by the first-year coordinator Ray Horton, who came over from the Steelers. Horton has installed myriad blitz packages and is a proponent of taking risks to force offensive mistakes. His Cardinals D gave up 422 passing yards to Newton … but only 21 points. Late in the fourth quarter, on Carolina’s final drive, the Cardinals repeatedly blitzed Newton from inside the red zone. On fourth-and-five in that final drive, the Cardinals blitzed again and gave up four yards. Bending, not breaking.
The next week, Newton torched the Packers through the air. But Dom Capers also confused Newton with coverage changeups in the third quarter, resulting in two interceptions (Newton had also been baited into a pick by Charles Woodson late in the second quarter). Green Bay also capitalized when space became limited, holding the Panthers to two red zone field goals in the first half. In the end, Newton had played well for 90 percent of the snaps and posted 432 yards through the air. But the Packers were able to make big plays on the other 10 percent and, consequently, Carolina finished with only 16 points.
Quarterbacks are playing well these days. But defenses are more willing than ever to let quarterbacks play well. They just don’t want quarterbacks playing mistake-free. Thus, one of the reasons passing statistics are destined to inflate.
Andy Benoit is the founder of NFLTouchdown.com and an analyst for CBSsports.com. He can be reached at andy.benoit@NFLtouchdown.com or @Andy_Benoit.
No comments:
Post a Comment