Patriots (5-1) at Steelers (5-2)
Sunday, 4:15 p.m.
Line: Patriots by 3.
In a world where the Colts lose by 55 points, the Jaguars can beat the Ravens without scoring a touchdown and games are becoming so boring that they have become upstaged by the postgame handshakes, it is heartening to know that we can still count on the Steelers’ defense. Unfortunately, we cannot still count on the Steelers’ defense.
The Steelers have intercepted just two passes this season, an amazingly low figure when you run down the quarterbacks they have faced: Tarvaris Jackson, Blaine Gabbert, Kevin Kolb, Kerry Collins, Curtis Painter. Ten of the Steelers’ 17 sacks came against Gabbert and Jackson, the standard-bearers in that cavalcade of regret. While Warren Sapp’s “old and slow” estimation of the Steelers’ defense after Week 1 was premature and slightly exaggerated, the Steel Curtain now has a higher-than-advertised aluminum content.
The Steelers compensate for their declining defense with one of the best passing attacks in the league: they rank fifth in net passing yards per game and eighth in yards per attempt. And while the Patriots’ offense is better than Pittsburgh’s, their defense is far worse, allowing a league-high 423 yards per game. So get ready for a back-and-forth, high-scoring offensive battle. After last week’s games, you deserve it. Pick: Steelers.
Cowboys (3-3) at Eagles (2-4)
Sunday, 8:20 p.m.
Line: Eagles by 3.5.
Asante Samuel said this week that the Eagle front office was “playing fantasy football.” What gave it away? When they showed up at the start of free agency with a container of buffalo dip and a magazine tucked under their arm? When Andy Reid started leaking starting lineups over the Internet? Samuel was angry that the Eagles tried to trade him during their bye week. He should be thrilled that he did not end up with the Rams.
Despite Samuel’s complaints, these bitter rivals are experiencing renewed optimism: the Eagles after a bye week, the Cowboys after facing the Rams. Jason Peters and Trent Cole returned to practice after the bye, bringing the Eagles up to full strength so they can infuriate their fans with maximum potency. The Cowboys discovered that everything looks better after a hearty Rams stomping: the youngsters on the offensive line look better, the new running back DeMarco Murray is the talk of the league and there is no need to question Tony Romo’s decision making when the Cowboys lead by 24 points.
Romo did make a questionable decision during the week, however. He announced his wife’s pregnancy, not through the usual channels (press release, Twitter, nosy neighbor telling hairdresser), but to an auditorium full of high school students. A student at a rally against drugs asked Romo if he had any children — boy, is that kid out of the loop — and Romo said that he soon would. Word to the wise: never share personal information with teenagers. In fairness, it was the last 15 minutes of the rally, so Romo probably felt it was safe. Pick: Cowboys.
Lions (5-2) at Broncos (2-4)
Sunday, 4:05 p.m.
Line: Lions by 3.
Young quarterbacks have been winning “bottom-line” games since the dawn of N.F.L. history. In a “bottom-line” game, the youngster stumbles haplessly through the afternoon, then gets bailed out by his teammates in a low-scoring victory. Coaches, television analysts, writers and fans then give empirical evidence and common sense several compound fractures in an effort to credit the quarterback for some intangible contribution. “Bottom line: he’s a winner,” we often say, write or injure ourselves trying to believe.
Any inexperienced passer can have a bottom-line game, but only Tim Tebow possesses the unique talents to produce the greatest, most bottom-worthy bottom-line game in history. Few quarterbacks have looked worse for 54 minutes, then gotten more support from diving catches, onside kicks or opponent incompetence, causing as much cognitive dissonance among those who automatically equate victory with quarterbacking achievement. To top Sunday’s 18-15 overtime effort, Tebow must take the snap and simply roll the ball to Lions defenders this week, then wait for a meteor shower to force the Lions to evacuate their bench and forfeit the game. With Tebow, anything is possible (except possibly three consecutive accurate passes), and after their actions in the last two weeks, the Lions may have it coming. Pick: Lions.
Redskins (3-3) at Bills (4-2) in Toronto
Sunday, 4:05 p.m.
Line: Bills by 6.
A radio station in Ontario held a ticket giveaway in which six contestants had to dig through a kiddie pool filled with buffalo manure to find a canister containing passes to this game at the Rogers Centre. (“Best seats in the hoose,” the radio host claimed.) The exact amount of humiliation a person will endure for the opportunity to watch John Beck hand off to Roy Helu has finally been scientifically ascertained, and it sheds horrifying light upon human nature. All recognizable Redskins offensive starters are injured for this game except for Rex Grossman, whose football future was hidden in one of the nonwinning canisters. Pick: Bills.
Cardinals (1-5) at Ravens (4-2)
Sunday, 1 p.m.
Line: Ravens by 13.
The Ravens are experiencing one of their periodic offensive brownouts during which the bombs stop falling and Joe Flacco demonstrates his inability to complete passes that do not travel across multiple Congressional districts. Everyone involved in the offense is lining up to take the blame, almost as though they have done this before. “Heat on me, heat on Joe,” the offensive coordinator Cam Cameron said. “The coordinators, quarterbacks, we can all do better.” Added Coach John Harbaugh, “I think we all deserve to have fingers pointed at us when the offense plays like that.” These slumps typically end when the Ravens face a defense that allowed 30 points per game over the last three games, or a turnover-prone, injury-plagued offense with pass protection issues. The Cardinals meet both criteria. Pick: Ravens.
Vikings (1-6) at Panthers (2-5)
Sunday, 1 p.m.
Line: Panthers by 3.5.
Cam Newton is a great looking quarterback,. Whether in the pocket, on the run or on the sideline, he is a photogenic young man. Newton may have met his match in the matinee idol department in his fellow rookie Christian Ponder. Not only did Ponder’s passing in a near comeback against the Packers look beautiful after weeks of Donovan McNabb’s pumpkin chunking, but he also has attracted fans of the attractive. Ponder beat the Twins’ catcher/heartthrob Joe Mauer in a Minneapolis radio contest to determine the region’s hunkiest athlete. “QB really does stand for Quality Beef,” the radio host Jason Matheson told The Minneapolis Star Tribune, providing us with our most awkward quote ever. Looks aside, Ponder is no match for Newton, and if he goes a few weeks without a win, “QB” could also stand for “quietly backpedaling.” Pick: Panthers.
Jaguars (2-5) at Texans (4-3)
Sunday, 1 p.m.
Line: Texans by 9.5.
The Jaguars are index patients spreading a plague of awful football. They win Monday night games, 12-7. They bring torrential rains to wash out the fascinating Panthers offense. They cannot beat the Steelers or the Saints, but they can render them sloppy and unwatchable. The Jaguars’ defense is almost as good as their offense is bad, but good defense can take only partial credit for opponents’ ability to become listless and penalty prone the moment they see the teal jerseys. If you see the Jaguars on television, change the channel quickly, before you become contaminated, too. Pick: Texans.
Dolphins (0-6) at Giants (4-2)
Sunday, 1 p.m.
Line: Giants by 10.
Tom Coughlin called the Dolphins a very “clean” team with regards to penalties this week. The Dolphins have incurred just 27 fouls, so there is something spotless about their record, unblemished as it is by victory. As polite compliments go, “clean” is rock bottom: if you want to not praise someone or something, praise its hygene. A pre-owned 1991 Corolla with 253,000 miles on it and a Pat Benatar “Get Nervous” cassette melted inside the tape deck is “clean.” You know, Coughlin was on to something: that was the best metaphor for the current Dolphins organization that anyone has come up with this year. Pick: Giants.
Saints (5-2) at Rams (0-6)
Sunday, 1 p.m.
Line: Saints by 13.5.
The Saints outscored the Seahawks, the Browns, the Raiders, the Titans, the Rams, the Jaguars, the Ravens and the Browns combined last week, and still had 2 points left over in case one of those eight teams (three of which won their games) attempted a 2-point conversion. This week they face a team with an average margin of defeat of 28-9. If that spread seems a little low, it is because the supercomputer that calculates Las Vegas odds (Deep Blue Velour) was last seen at a Fremont Street bar drinking gin and mumbling about being overworked. Pick: Saints.
Colts (0-7) at Titans (3-3)
Sunday, 1 p.m.
Line: Titans by 8.5.
When the Colts need their pride challenged, they need only load up the team chairman Jim Irsay’s Twitter feed, wade through all of the old Jackson Browne lyrics, and find something suitably motivational/loopy: “We have 2turn n2that junkyard animal no creature EVER wants 2face,jaws of furry with nothin2lose!” Irsay will keep that junkyard animal handy in case Peyton Manning tries to interfere with the team’s plan to draft Andrew Luck. Pick: Titans.
Browns (3-3) at 49ers (5-1)
Sunday, 4:15 p.m.
Line: 49ers by 8.5.
Frank Gore is 110 yards away from passing Roger Craig for second place on the 49ers career rushing list, and Craig is more excited about it than Gore. “It just shows how mentally he’s just involved in winning and doing his job every day,” Craig told The San Francisco Chronicle. Craig added that Gore has overlooked other personal accomplishments: “I texted him and said congratulations on being the FedEx player of the week. He said, ‘When did that happen?’ That shows how focused he is, and I like that.” Shouldn’t FedEx tell players when they are named FedEx player of the week? They have an international information distribution network at their disposal, after all. If Gore passes Craig, the game ball will be shipped to Gore’s home via U.P.S. Pick: 49ers.
Bengals (4-2) at Seahawks (2-4)
Sunday, 4:15 p.m.
Line: Bengals by 3.
Teams in the A.F.C. North get to play opponents from both the A.F.C. South and the N.F.C. West this season, the two worst divisions in the N.F.L. Assuming the Texans and the 49ers remain capable of putting up a fight, it means that teams like the Bengals get six guaranteed wins just for properly buckling their chin straps. It also makes their nonconference schedules a minefield full of trap games: one slip, like the Ravens had against the Jaguars on Monday night, and a team can fall behind a division foe with an equally cushy schedule. The Giants tripped over the Seahawks two weeks ago, and the returns of Marshawn Lynch and Tarvaris Jackson will give the Seahawks’ offense a major boost, which provides terrifying insight into the state of their offense. Pick: Bengals.
Chargers (4-2) at Chiefs (3-3)
Monday, 8:30 p.m.
Line: Chargers by 3.5.
The Chiefs’ defense has not allowed a touchdown in the last six quarters. It usually performs that well only when up against the Chiefs’ offense, though facing Curtis Painter, Kyle Boller and a fresh-from-the-man-cave Carson Palmer has a similar effect. Philip Rivers is far better than that group, but he is slumping: he threw two interceptions in a narrow victory over the Chiefs in Week 3 and two more in a loss to the Jets on Sunday. “Am I playing my best ball right now? Absolutely not,” he told The San Diego Union Tribune. “We’re 4-2. We’re just battling through it. All I’m saying is, I could be playing like this and we could be 1-5. It’d be ugly.” Rivers should come around, and if he does not, we have at least grown accustomed to ugly Monday night games. Pick: Chargers.
Times are Eastern. Picks do not reflect the betting line.
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