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While the Carson Palmer (Oakland, vs. DEN ) era in Oakland officially began in Week 7, and boy was it ugly, this game will be his first start for the Silver and Black. In fantasy terms, the matchup doesn’t get any better, with the Broncos allowing the most fantasy points to the position through the first eight weeks. Still, starting Palmer does mean you are pretty desperate, even more desperate than the guy rolling with Seattle’s Tarvaris Jackson. But with the bye weeks still hovering over many of you, you can do worse than rolling the dice with Palmer, who claims to be comfortable now with Oakland’s playbook and his new receivers. He’s among our favorable quarterback matchups for Week 9.
Favorable/Unfavorable Quarterback Matchups
Favorable
Eli Manning (NYG) vs. NE –
Ben Roethlisberger was the latest quarterback to pick on the league’s worst pass defense, becoming the sixth quarterback in the last seven games to reach the 300-yard mark against the Patriots.
Tarvaris Jackson (SEA) vs. DAL –
Bye weeks call for desperate measures, and starting Jackson certainly fits that description. But he did throw for a career-high 323 yards in just two and a half quarters last week against a tough Bengals secondary, and Seattle’s 31st ranked rushing attack will most likely struggle against the Cowboys’ formidable defensive front. That means Jackson will have to air it out early and often.
Matt Cassel (KC) vs. MIA –
With two interceptions and a passer rating just below 70 percent, Cassel was far from great last Monday night. But the reception monster known as Baldwin-Bowe-Breaston is starting to take shape, and the matchup is almost as good as Palmer’s, with the Dolphins allowing the second-most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks (24 FPPG). Twenty-plus standard points from Cassel doesn’t seem like such a stretch this week.
Unfavorable
Ryan Fitzpatrick (BUF) vs. NYJ – The Jets have allowed just four passing touchdowns and are considered the worst matchup a quarterback can have (8 FPPG).
Matt Hasselbeck (TEN) vs. CIN – Hasselbeck had a bit of a bounce-back last week after two bad outings, although we were hoping for a bit more against the Colts’ shoddy defense. We’re not expecting a lot from Hasselbeck this week because the Bengals haven’t allowed a quarterback to eclipse the 20-point mark all season.
Joe Flacco (BAL) vs. PIT – Despite an inconsistent year from Flacco, he was one of the few quarterbacks to actually have a productive day against this unit, throwing for three touchdowns and 224 yards in Week 1. The Steelers are also dealing with major injuries, as its three starting linebackers, LaMarr Woodley, James Harrison and James Farrior, will not play in this game. It would still require a lot of guts to start Flacco this week, considering how up-and-down he’s been.
Ben Roethlisberger (PIT) vs. BAL – In this marquee matchup, Roethlisberger has a chance to become the first Steelers quarterback to post three-consecutive 300-yard games. He fell just 20 yards short of that mark back in Week 1 against Baltimore, but that was little consolation to owners who ended up with an 8-point fantasy downer (1 TD, 3 INT). The Ravens have surrendered the second-fewest fantasy points to quarterbacks this season (9 FPPG), and are allowing just 174 passing yards a game.
Favorable/Unfavorable Running Back Matchups
Favorable
Michael Turner (ATL) vs. IND – Turner owners have to like the prospects of his fresh, bye-week rested legs going up against the league’s second-worst run defense. A running back has been able to post at least 10 fantasy points on the Colts in each of their eight games.
Steven Jackson (STL) vs. ARZ – Jackson’s 159 yards and 2 TDs were a big reason the Rams were able to upset the New Orleans Saints last Sunday. Perhaps the new World Series champions should pay a visit before every Rams game the rest of the season. Jackson’s Week 9 opponent is yielding 19 fantasy points a game to RBs and is coming off a 27-point fantasy beat-down, courtesy of Ray Rice.
LeGarrette Blount (TB) vs. NO -- The big man is expected to make his return this week for a pivotal matchup with the Saints. With the team’s primary third-down back (Graham) done for the year, Blount will likely see more passing down duties, although Kregg Lumpkin is better suited for the role. The Saints have surrendered 18 fantasy points to RBs on average over the last four weeks.
BenJarvus Green-Ellis vs. NYG – It doesn’t get much uglier than a season-low 9 yards on five carries, but the Steelers’ offensive barrage is mostly to blame for keeping the Patriots from establishing a ground game. The Giants have surrendered a rushing TD in each of their seven games and continue to struggle stopping the run despite Justin Tuck’s return (Reggie Bush, 103 yards in Week 7) .
Unfavorable
DeMarco Murray (DAL) vs. SEA –
Felix Jones could return this week, which would turn the Dallas backfield into a committee as Coach Jason Garrett has already suggested, and Seattle’s 3.2 yards per game against the run now tops all units this season. Murray is more of a mid-tier RB2 option this weekend.
Jackie Battle (KC) vs. MIA
– The Jets, the Broncos and the Giants have all failed to produce a 10-point fantasy performance on the ground against this unit over the last three weeks, with the Dolphins allowing zero touchdowns to running backs over that three-game span.
Chris Johnson (TEN) vs. CIN --
It’s probably safe to label this guy a bust after he posted a 2.4 YPC against the feeble Colts run defense. His matchup with the Bengals’ second-ranked run defense is not a good one, and he now has Javon Ringer stealing more carries. CJ2K is no better than a low-end flex this week, as hard as that is to believe.
Rashard Mendenhall (PIT) vs. BAL
– The Ravens held Mendenhall to 45 yards on 12 carries in Week 1 and are allowing just 3.3 YPC. With all of the bye week and injury issues at the RB position, sitting him probably is not an option, though.
Favorable/Unfavorable Wide Receiver Matchups
Favorable
Brandon Lloyd vs. ARIZ – With 25 targets in his first two games as a Ram, it’s no secret who the go-to guy is in this passing game. He has a 9-point fantasy average despite having yet to catch a pass from Sam Bradford. Baltimore’s Anquan Boldin was the third wideout in the last four weeks to reach double-digit fantasy points against the Cardinals, who are considered the fifth-best WR matchup this season (25 FPPG).
Dwayne Bowe (KC) vs. MIA –
Bowe failed to find the end zone for the first time in three weeks despite a team-high 11 targets, but you have to like his chances here against a Miami secondary that is tied for second in receiving touchdowns and has allowed the seventh-most fantasy points to the position through seven games.
Miles Austin (DAL) vs. SEA – The Seahawks present a solid opportunity for Miles and the Dallas passing game to bust out of their funk. A.J. Green became the second No. 1 wideout over the last three weeks to post at least 12 points on this depleted unit last Sunday.
Sidney Rice (SEA) vs. DAL
– Rice recorded his second 100-yard performance of the season in Week 8 against the Bengals. His quarterback, Jackson, continues to force him the ball with 14 targets last week, and the duo has been productive when Jackson has been healthy (96 yard avg., 1 TD). The Cowboys will be missing their best cornerback, Mike Jenkins, for the next three to four weeks.
Unfavorable
Nate Washington (TEN) vs. CIN –
Last week’s breakout game was much appreciated by many owners during these difficult bye weeks, but it could be back to mediocrity this week. Week 8 saw Seattle’s Rice become the first WR1 to reach 10 points against this unit all season.
Brandon Marshall (MIA) vs. KC
– The Marshall/Matt Moore connection has yet to hit its stride, and it might have to wait another week. This week it’s up against the Chiefs’ elite corner, Brandon Flowers, who has held Reggie Wayne, Darrius Heyward-Bey and Vincent Jackson to a 6-point fantasy average over the last three weeks.
Darrius Heyward-Bey (OAK) vs. DEN –
Champ Bailey may not be the shutdown cornerback he once was, but he still demands respect and will most likely be assigned to shadow the Raiders’ emerging receiver. Heyward-Bey was limited to four receptions for 44 yards on seven targets in his Week 1 meeting with Denver, and his quarterback is still trying to learn a new offense.
A.J. Green (CIN) vs. TEN --
WR1’s are averaging 53 yards a game this season with just one touchdown against this secondary, so Green will have to earn it this week.
Favorable/Unfavorable Tight End Matchups
Favorable
Brent Celek (PHI) vs. CHI – An afterthought for nearly a season and a half, Celek has been on the receiving end of two touchdowns in two weeks and saw a team-high nine targets in Week 8. With the pounding Michael Vick has taken during the first half of the season, it would appear the Eagles are utilizing a shorter field to get the ball out quicker to avoid the blitz. A similar strategy would be wise against the Bears, who have allowed six TDs to the position in their seven games (best TE matchup).
Unfavorable
Heath Miller (PIT) vs. BAL – Miller wins the worst matchup award for his position this week. Opposing tight ends are averaging a measly 2 points a game against this unit, and Miller’s 4-point fantasy day back in Week 1 stands as the best outing the position has had against the Ravens. If that excites you, then by all means continue to start him.
Favorable/Unfavorable Defense/Special Teams Matchups
Favorable
Oakland vs. DEN, Houston vs. CLE, San Francisco vs. WAS, Philadelphia vs. CHI, Kansas City vs. MIA
Unfavorable
Chicago vs. PHI, Giants vs. NE, San Diego vs. GB, Tampa Bay vs. NO, Seattle vs. DAL
Do you have a “start or sit” question? We are taking questions on Twitter. Follow us at @5thDownFantasy.
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