The Dallas Cowboys got to their typical late-season meltdown much faster than usual last year. By the second week of November they were 1-7 and handing Coach Wade Phillips his walking papers. Though there were questionable tactical measures, the losing was primarily a consequence of sloppy execution. Many players simply lost their focus.
It speaks volumes about the team’s character that this happened under an easygoing coach like Phillips. It’s one thing for players to lose respect for a polarizing personality like a Brad Childress or a Bill Callahan; it’s another for them to lose respect for someone who specifically tries not to make their lives miserable. The Colts never laid down on Tony Dungy.
But fangless coaches, like the late-season meltdowns, are another of the Cowboys’ repeated patterns. It’s no secret that Jerry Jones has a fondness for hiring softy head coaches who can double as yes-men. Remember Dave Campo? Chan Gailey? Barry Switzer? Everyone, especially the players, knew these “leaders” were second in command to Jones.
The only two head coaches who did not settle for riding shotgun were Bill Parcells and Jimmy Johnson, both of whom, not coincidentally, spearheaded the personnel decisions and built long-lasting foundations for success. Johnson brought forth the early-90s dynasty; Parcells stockpiled this current club with many of the cogs you see today (Tony Romo, Miles Austin, Andre Gurode, Jason Witten, Jay Ratliff, Bradie James, DeMarcus Ware and Terence Newman).
So which category does Jason Garrett fall into? Distant observers who heard about Garrett’s new sheriff attitude and his extra padded practices late last season, and who saw the Cowboys go 5-3 under him, would surmise that he’s in that Johnson-Big Tuna camp. But those closer to the organization say no, he’s another “really nice guy.”
Despite what our talking heads culture says, it’s impossible to analyze and predict the effect that personalities will have on a football team. Eric Mangini was a hardnosed disciplinarian when he won in New York and a first-class jerk when he lost in Cleveland. Tom Coughlin supposedly couldn’t relate to his players…until the Giants won a Super Bowl in the 2007 season. Tony Dungy was too nice a guy to push a team over the hump…before he did with the ’06 Colts.
The Cowboys remain one of the most talented teams in football (good thing, too, because no matter what, we get stuck watching them in prime time at least five times a year). Discussing nebulous elements like their focus and desire is fruitless until it can be done in hindsight. So let’s ignore the giant big screens, crisp white uniforms, glaring national spotlights and tabloid magazines and actually try to answer the only question about America’s Team that matters: what can be done on the field to make up for 16 years’ worth of unfulfilled ambition?
Offense
Tony Romo’s “leadership” and “demeanor” have little to do with the Cowboys’ fate. What counts is how complex a game plan Jason Garrett can design with him. The answer thus far has been “only a modestly complex one.” Romo has the athleticism to make sandlot plays. But sandlot plays can only be counted on…well, in sandlot games. In grownup football, a quarterback must read defenses well enough to adjust routes, timing and protections before the snap. Then he must process those adjustments at lightning speed after the snap. It’s only when a quarterback fails to do this that he relies on sandlot skills.
Talented quarterbacks can still excel with a sandlot style. We’ve seen Michael Vick redefine his position; Ben Roethlisberger has two rings (though he’s the only pure sandlot quarterback to win a title). Romo is gifted enough to make it work – he moves well, has an incredibly quick release and can throw from different platforms (i.e. on the run, falling away, side-armed, over-armed, etc.).
Still, impressive as these traits are, it’s difficult to ride this style for great distances, as it’s too prone to mistakes and inconsistencies. It forces wide receivers to improvise – which very few can, since that’s the opposite of how they’ve been taught to play the position. And it compels play-callers to think twice about turning to the juiciest pages of their playbook.
We’ve seen this play out with Romo and the Cowboy offense over the years. Why do you think Dallas operates out of so many basic formations and personnel packages? (Hint: It’s not because fullback Chris Gronkowski and backup tight end Martellus Bennett are simply too good to come off the field.)
It’s not that Romo is too stupid to run a complex system – he’s just not a sharp enough quarterback to thrive under hazardous conditions. The only quarterbacks who are, really, are Manning, Brady, Brees and Rodgers. Unlike those first-tier players, Romo needs big-time targets and reliable protection to excel consistently. Mediocre resources aren’t enough.
Romo at least has the big-time targets. Miles Austin is a stout but sinewy playmaker with a good feel for making quick adjustments. Dez Bryant is as explosive as any player to enter the league in the past 20 years. Maturity is a major concern – especially since you get the sense that Jerry Jones is willing to cut Bryant slack and grant him special privileges – but in terms of talent, the Cowboys couldn’t ask for more. And, of course, tight end Jason Witten is the consummate pro. He’s not dynamic enough to create mismatches, but he feasts on the mismatches others create for him.
The Cowboys’ passing game lacks depth. Quick but unspectacular Kevin Ogletree figures to work ahead of sixth-round rookie Dwayne Harris as the No. 3 wideout, while Martellus Bennett and John Phillips will vie for the No. 2 tight end duties. Phillips is the more fluid receiving weapon and might have snatched the job a year ago if not for a season-ending knee injury last August. Bennett, unreliable as he has been since being drafted in the second round in ’08, has actually evolved into a good in-line blocker, which is critical because he has not become the receiving weapon that many expected.
As for the offensive line…that’s where Dallas’s resources could fall short. It depends on whether everyone can stay healthy (there’s absolutely no proven depth to fall back on) and whether the newcomers can step forward. The two weakest links from last year’s front five – right guard Leonard Davis and right tackle Marc Colombo – were released. In Davis’s place is frequently overweight veteran Montrae Holland. In Colombo’s place is first-round rookie Tyron Smith, who, at 21, is one of the greatest but greenest pure talents to come off U.S.C.’s O-line.
If the right side of the line can somehow make magic, this offense could look like the one that ranked second in scoring four years ago. The rest of the line is stable. Andre Gurode has uncommon power for a center; Kyle Kosier, if over the foot and knee issues that have bothered him two of the last three years, offers adequate mobility; and developing left tackle Doug Free – while a bit overpaid in his new four-year, $32 million contract ($17 million guaranteed) – is supremely athletic as an open-space run-blocker and has shown encouraging signs of improvement as a pass-blocker.
Laws of probability suggest the Cowboys won’t quite manage a top-flight passing attack. This makes the running back tandem of Tashard Choice and Felix Jones all the more important. Expect Jones to start – he’s a former first-round pick. But don’t censure the Cowboys if they give the heavier load on Choice. He has fantastic lateral agility, a sounder inside running style and better durability than the electrifying Jones. Third-round pick DeMarco Murray, barring injuries like the hamstring that sidelined him during the start of training camp, will also figure into the rotation. Murray, like the veterans ahead of him, is a finesse runner.
Defense
It’s a football crime that we’ve gone this far without covering new defensive coordinator Rob Ryan. The former Browns coordinator brings his bag of defensive riddles to a Cowboys team that had been operating in a 3-4 scheme built on fairly basic 4-3 principles (one gap stuff).
Ryan’s scheme will push (hopefully not break) the intellectual aptitude of what has recently been an embarrassingly undisciplined defense. The chances of it bearing fruit in 2011 are fifty-fifty. The scheme relies on players being versatile and handling myriad assignments out of myriad personnel packages. It will be classified as a 3-4 but frequently morph into a 2-5. Or a 1-6. Or 6-1. Or whatever Ryan thinks will create the most confusion. It’s a lot for players to learn – especially when the only firsthand lessons they’ve had before training camp are a week’s worth of illegal pre-lockout cram sessions.
Ryan’s first concern should be whether the secondary can handle it. It was their ineptitude that felled this defense last season. The Cowboys gave up 33 touchdowns through the air, which tied Houston for the most in the state of Texas (oh, and for the most in all of football).
Ryan could have his work cut out for him. Nickelback Orlando Scandrick is a liability in man coverage. Cornerback Mike Jenkins followed his ’09 Pro Bowl campaign with a ’10 stink bomb that was highlighted by a lack of toughness, fundamentals, focus and effort. Veteran Terence Newman is still effective, especially in off-coverage, but being 33 (come September) and afflicted with Vince Carter Syndrome (a disease that causes frequent minor injuries throughout the course of a game), he can no longer shadow wideouts every down on an island.
The late addition of former Browns free safety Abe Elam was huge. Elam gives this secondary a physical presence and source of firsthand experience with Ryan’s system. His arrival also bumps Alan Ball back to a more natural dime back role, where he’ll play more underneath and in the flats (as opposed to over the top and in centerfield, where he was iffy last year). This keeps overmatched youngster Bryce McCann off the field. Gerald Sensabaugh returns as the strong safety, though don’t be surprised if his athleticism is used in more of a joker role.
Speaking of joker roles….think Ryan might have some plans for DeMarcus Ware? The leading sacker in the N.F.L. over the last five years was used as a de facto weakside defensive end in Wade Phillips’s scheme. This was done to create one-on-one matchups. If he wants, Ryan can stick with that approach given how adept the other outside linebacker, Anthony Spencer, is at shedding blocks on the strong side.
Spencer, like a lot of his teammates, must bounce back from a down year. If he doesn’t, Jerry Jones and the front office may take into consideration his expiring contract and decide that it’s worth seeing what third-year pros Victor Butler and Brandon Williams can do with more snaps.
The Cowboys may run into a few issues with stopping the run in 2011. A more proactive front office like Philadelphia’s or Pittsburgh’s probably would have cut 35-year-old Keith Brooking this past off-season and settled for throwing last year’s second-round pick, Sean Lee, into the lineup. Better a year too early than a year too late with these things. But as it stands, Lee will continue to handle nickel linebacking duties (he’s an excellent direction-changer in space) behind Bradie James. Brooking is a smart, fiery leader, but his recent struggles with untangling from blocks is concerning.
Ryan will have to tweak his defensive line approach to take full advantage of the gap-shooting prowess of Jay Ratliff. At 290 pounds, Ratliff simply doesn’t have the girth to be an everydown two-gap nose tackle. But quickness and a tenacious motor make him special. One way to ensure one-on-one matchups for Ratliff is to use what coaches call “bear fronts,” which would squeeze defensive ends Igor Olshansky and Marcus Spears to the inside of the line. Neither Spears nor Olshansky has great quickness, but both anchor well.
It’s surprising the Cowboys recently gave Spears a five-year, $19.2 million contract. He has not been nearly the underachiever his critics claim, but with sixth-year nickel D-lineman Jason Hatcher capable of handling more first and second down snaps, and ex-Brown Kenyon Coleman following Ryan here, the Cowboys had positions in greater need of investment than defensive end. One final name to note: Josh Brent. The backup nose tackle was a seventh-round supplemental pick last season and showed a very encouraging initial burst.
Special Teams
Kicker David Buehler (Buehler? . . . Buehler?) has good distance but needs to be more consistent in mid-range after missing three of his seven field-goal attempts from 30-39 yards. Mat McBriar is one of the best punters in the game when it comes to both height and placement. In the return game, Dez Bryant is a frightening home run threat.
Bottom Line
Three things need to happen for the Cowboys to solidify themselves as a playoff threat: 1. Good health (this, of course, is a need for all teams but especially so here considering the poor depth on offense); 2. The young players grow up quickly; and 3. The defense immediately comes to life in Ryan’s complex scheme. Each of these things is more of a long shot than probability.
Predicted Finish: 2nd N.F.C. East
Andy Benoit is the founder of NFLTouchdown.com and covers the N.F.L. for CBSsports.com. He can be reached at andy.benoit@NFLtouchdown.com.
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