Andy Benoit is previewing all 32 N.F.L. teams. This week, he is analyzing the A.F.C. South.
Last year, there was an unofficial national movement to declare the Indianapolis Colts old. People looked only at the unusually lengthy list of injuries striking this team and chalked it up to Father Time. Never mind that all of the key players who missed significant time – tight end Dallas Clark, running back Joseph Addai, wide receivers Austin Collie and Anthony Gonzalez, safety Melvin Bullitt, linebacker Clint Session and cornerbacks Jerraud Powers and Kelvin Hayden – were all, save for Clark, under 30 years old.
In truth, time is closing in on this team. But it’s closing in on everybody. And, with 31-year-olds Dwight Freeney and Gary Brackett being the defensive elder statesmen but still firmly in their primes, it’s fair to say that Father Time is chasing only the offense. Clark is 32. So are Reggie Wayne and right tackle Ryan Diem. The esteemed center Jeff Saturday is 36. And that guy who takes the snaps from Saturday is 35.
We can stop right here. Really, if Father Time wants to take down this franchise, he need only sack Peyton Manning. As 31 N.F.L. teams can attest, that’s not easy. But for the first time in 14 years, it doesn’t seem impossible.
Manning spent virtually the entire off-season recovering from a second neck operation to correct a bulging disk. He originally said he wouldn’t have even had the surgery if the lockout hadn’t wiped out off-season team activities. But with nearly three months now gone by and Manning still not practicing (which is akin to you or I not eating or sleeping), our antennas of suspicion are effectively raised.
Still, this summer, the Colts owner Jim Irsay followed through on his mission to re-sign Manning long term and make him the highest-paid player in the N.F.L. Or he tried, anyway; Manning threw the organization a bone by signing on for five years at $90 million ($69 million the first over three years), which is a few hairs below his market value.
That’s a considerable investment in a 35-year-old quarterback, but no one batted an eye, as it’s common knowledge that Irsay didn’t have a choice. The Colts’ organization can replace Coach Tony Dungy with Jim Caldwell and not skip a beat. It can endure significant player personnel moves like replacing, say, the legendary Marvin Harrison with an unknown like Pierre Garcon. It can cycle through defensive personnel without much hiccup. It can stand to lose a longtime offensive assistant like Tom Moore (who left his consultant post and has now been completely replaced by the offensive coordinator Clyde Christensen). It can even handle a passing of the torch from the team president Bill Polian to his son Chris Polian without drifting from the blueprint that has led to seven A.F.C. South titles in eight years (we assume it can handle this, anyway; it’s early in that transition, but so far so good).
But what this organization cannot survive is a change under center. The Colts can survive all those other changes only because of who’s under center. Lose Manning and that’s it – era over. So long, thanks for the memories. It was fun. All the best! Oh, and by the way, just a heads up: you’ll probably be remembered as football’s version of the Atlanta Braves. The 90s Braves, that is. Nothing personal or too pejorative, really. Just, you know, the consistent regular season dominance and lone world title.
This is what the Colts are fighting from here on out. There is still plenty of time … but yes, the clock’s also ticking.
Offense
We’re not going to bother analyzing what this offense might be like if Dan Orlovsky or (Colts fans, cover your ears) Curtis Painter has to run the show for a little while. Just know it wouldn’t be good. As for Peyton Manning running the show, there is no arguing against his magnificence. There was once a time when people questioned whether the presnap gyrations and neurotic preparation and attention to detail robbed this offense of its flexibility and personality. But that was many M.V.P.s and several 4,000-yard seasons ago.
The remaining scrap of doubters were hushed last season, when Manning posted career highs in yards and pass attempts to prove once and for all that he can carry this unit no matter which 10 guys line up with him. This year shouldn’t be as challenging. Dallas Clark is back posing matchup problems off the line of scrimmage or out of the slot. And it’s now known that his backup, Jacob Tamme, has the fluidity and soft hands to beat linebackers underneath and even the occasional safety down the seams. Tamme isn’t a good in-line blocker, though, so don’t be surprised if the Colts use the more physical Brody Eldridge in their base two-tight-end sets.
At receiver, everyone is praying Austin Collie, victim of at least two nasty concussions late last fall, can stay safe for 16 games. The Colts would not put him back in the slot if they did not trust doctors who say he’s fine. Collie has a good feel for seeing what Manning sees, which is what sets him apart from Blair White. If Collie is unavailable, the quicker Anthony Gonzalez (barring one of his regularly occurring injuries) will get another opportunity to fulfill his first-round promise.
Starting outside receiver Pierre Garcon is one of the physically strongest catch-and-run weapons in the N.F.L. The Colts will need a breakout season from Garcon, a fourth-year pro, because, with the exception of center Jeff Saturday, none of their older veterans have shown as stark a decline as Reggie Wayne. This may sound preposterous considering Wayne is coming off a 111-catch, 1,355-yard season. But in an offense as proficient as this, the numbers will always be there (especially when your quarterback attempts 679 passes). What’s more important is how those numbers are obtained. Are they coming against double teams and coverages tilted his direction over the top? Or are they against a lot of soft zones, where a receiver can get by on timing and precision? This is not a rhetorical question – there’s an answer: zones. Wayne can still feast on zones. But in a private moment with all walls down, the Colts’ brass would probably tell you that Wayne is no longer explosive enough to consistently separate against quality man coverage. (Which may be why he has not received the long-term contract he desires.)
We’ve seen the Colts succeed without an effective ground game before, but they would make life easier on themselves (and perhaps a little longer for Manning) if they had one. Most of Indy’s rushing production comes from Manning audibling against a seven-man front. But in short-yardage situations, the futility of this front five, and specifically the painfully weak interior three, gets exposed.
Saturday is strictly a movement-oriented player at this point. He can’t win many power battles. The second-year left guard Jacques McClendon is an unknown. It would be sensible for the second-round rookie Ben Ijalana, a gifted 317-pound right tackle at Villanova, to start inside ahead of the hard-working but overwhelmed Mike Pollak. But the Colts insist that Ijalana is strictly a tackle (and thus, relegated to backup duty for now). Too bad – he would most likely be an upgrade over recent years’ fill-in starters Kyle DeVan and Jamey Richard.
It’s a matter of time before the first-round rookie Anthony Castonzo starts ahead of the unqualified Jeff Linkenbach at left tackle. The long-armed Ryan Diem is still one of the league’s best right tackles but not quite the force he was a few years ago (hence the Ijalana pick).
Fortunately, Manning is decisive in the pocket and does not need first-class blocking (defenses don’t even bother game-planning to sack him; they focus only on making him move his feet before throwing – something he’s not always comfortable doing). Running back Joseph Addai, and especially the hesitant first-round bust Donald Brown, however, do need first-class blocking. Addai has unusual lateral acceleration that allows him to create his own wiggle room, but usually not until he breaks the line of scrimmage. Because he is a fervid pass-blocker and Brown a mechanical runner who is perhaps less effective than even the undrafted third-stringer Javarris James, Indy would probably love to ride the 28-year-old Addai as a three-down back in 2011. Problem is, he has never shown that kind of durability, which is why the Colts will probably use the fourth-round rookie Delone Carter.
Defense
It wouldn’t be a gargantuan stretch to say that Dwight Freeney is as important to Indianapolis’s defense as Manning is to Indianapolis’s offense. This statement, though, held more water before the third-year defensive coordinator Larry Coyer’s arrival, when this defense ran almost strictly zone schemes that relied on a straight four-man rush. To be clear, this is still a finesse unit built to take advantage of the fast Lucas Oil surface. But Coyer has incorporated more interior blitzes and eight-man run fronts into the early down packages, saving the club’s hallmark Tampa 2 concepts predominantly for long passing situations (which is really how the passive zone defense is meant to be played these days).
That said, take away Freeney (who, as of right now, is the best pure speed rusher and best pure bull rusher in the N.F.L.) and the high-speed fumble-forcing machine Robert Mathis, and this defense would be hurting. The Polians know their ends are essential to almost everything their defense does – that’s why they drafted 255-pound Jerry Hughes in the first round last year. (They may regret this pick, too, considering Hughes made about as much impact on this team last season as Danica Patrick.)
The absence of off-season team activities prevented the coaching staff from getting a good look at the third-round rookie Drake Nevis and whatever undrafted gems they probably would have uncovered (Indy always find one or two). Thus, to augment depth along the defensive front, the Colts took the unusual step (for them) of signing the free agents Jamaal Anderson and Tommie Harris. Although disappointing as a first-rounder in Atlanta, Anderson is a premier run-stopping end who can offer 15 quality snaps a game. Harris can do the same as an explosive interior pass rusher. It is apparent, though, that his long-ailing knee will not allow him to recapture his every-down All-Pro form. Because of this, the underappreciated and energetic 26-year-olds Fili Moala, Eric Foster and Antonio Johnson will handle a bulk of the work at defensive tackle.
The Colts’ fast-flowing style against the run can lead to stops on the outside but also open the door to plenty of 7- and 8-yard gashes. In this scheme, the strong safety is often counted on to allay these gashes. If healthy, Melvin Bullitt is up to task. While no Bob Sanders, Bullitt, a undrafted fifth-year pro, is one of the fastest run attackers in football. He benefits from operating alongside a free safety with superb run-pass recognition in Antoine Bethea. Instincts and familiarity allow Bethea to play with much better range than his fairly ordinary athleticism suggests he should.
As important as Bullitt and Bethea are in the box, stopping the run still comes down to middle linebacker Gary Brackett and his two outside mates. Last year’s second-round pick, Pat Angerer, has the recognition skills and physicality to be a long-term cog on the strong side. He has a tad more speed than you would guess but is still not fast enough to play Will linebacker in this scheme. But last year’s seventh-rounder, Kavell Conner, may have the requisite speed. Conner, a supple athlete who sees the field fairly well, will get a chance to work ahead of the utility backup Phillip Wheeler. The Colts also signed the free agent Ernie Sims, but he gets lost in coverage and probably will not earn the trust of the linebackers coach Mike Murphy.
As for the rest of the coverage, the third-year pros Jerraud Powers and Jacob Lacey will be asked to headline a razor-thin cornerbacking group. Powers is a physical underneath defender but does not have the quickness to regularly make big plays. Lacey is similar, only less assertive when the ball is in the air. On most teams, Lacey would be a fringe nickel back. But most teams don’t have guys like the utterly untested Kevin Thomas (missed all of his 2010 rookie season with a knee injury) or the special teams veteran Justin Tryon vying for serious snaps.
Special Teams
Adam Vinatieri is pretty good in the clutch. You know punter Pat McAfee is good if he can get arrested for public intoxication during the season and still remain part of this family-values organization. This year he may get a chance at kicking long-distance field goals.
The Colts’ return games have always been one of the most boring things in professional football – right up there with the fullback handoff and halftime interviews. Because of this, we will no longer bother listing their return guys’ names (they change from week to week anyway).
Bottom Line
Put ‘em down for at least 10 wins and, more likely, 12 or 13. It is surprisingly easy to forget, but the last time this team stayed healthy, it started 14-0 and reached the Super Bowl. The lockout figures to favor clubs that have built familiar, successful systems over the years. Thus, the question is: Is this system familiar enough to operate without Manning having practiced in it for six months?
Predicted Finish: 1st A.F.C. South
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