Before the season, the N.F.L. statistical community pulled out its protractors — do they still use protractors? — to determine how damaging the absence of Peyton Manning might be.
It’s no longer a math exercise, with Manning most likely out for the season. (Even if he’s ready to return late in the season, the Colts may be out of the playoff hunt by then, so why risk re-injury by rushing him back? If the Colts really nosedive, they also may have a shot at drafting Andrew Luck as Manning’s eventual replacement, another reason not to hurry Manning back.)
In light of the Colts’ opening week debacle, let’s review some of what the analysts wrote:
Brian Burke of Advanced NFL Stats:
Since 2000 (as far back as my data goes), Manning played in 176 regular-season games and accumulated a total of 43.0 WPA, for an average of 3.8 WPA per season. This equates to 0.24 WPA per game, which means that Manning (and his passing offense) would give an otherwise perfectly average team a 74% chance of winning a game. In other words, he would take an 8-win team and make them an 11.8-win team.
In terms of points, Manning totaled 1,617 Expected Points Added (EPA) over those 176 games since 2000. That’s a 9.1 net point advantage per game. This means that Manning and his passing offense generated just over 9 points per game more than an average NFL passing game would have. It appears the odds makers agree, dropping the point spread in the upcoming Colts-Texans game by about that amount when Manning was declared doubtful.
The average Hall of Fame QB–guys like Marino, Fouts, Kelly, Montana and Young, were worth about 2.6 wins over their backups over the course of a 16 game schedule. I think Manning is worth a little more than that, and working off the average projection (the over/under was 9.5 to 10 on season wins before this news) would make them about a 7 win team.
I was on the under for the Colts even before this news, so I’m going to say about 3 wins off my expectation for them this year makes them about a 6-10 team as my official prediction. I don’t see them challenging for the #1 pick, and I think they will still be equivalent or better than Jacksonville or Tennessee.
Chase Stuart, Pro-Football-Reference.com:
I’m less optimistic than most. I’m not going out on a limb if I tell you that the Colts are going to implode, but I think that’s what’s going to happen. If Manning is gone for 16 games, I would probably take the “under” even at 6 wins.
The Colts aren’t now going to try to win with defense, because the defense isn’t built that way. Indianapolis won’t try to win by running, because the offense isn’t built that way. The Colts are going to try to plug and play, essentially keeping the high-octane, aerial attack that tries to get leads early, but by deploying Kerry Collins in lieu of Peyton Manning. That is a recipe for disaster.
In 2009, the Colts set a record for the largest disparity between passing and rushing first downs. Last year, they actually passed for 12 more first downs than they did the year before. Indianapolis is built around a lethal passing attack; Kerry Collins is going to kill the passing attack. Building a team around an almost 39-year-old recently retired quarterback who has two weeks of training is a train wreck waiting to happen. I’d be shocked if he doesn’t miss at least a few games this season, and the Colts will be even worse when he’s out.
The Colts won’t pass effectively. They won’t run effectively. When those things happen, the defense will be more exposed than ever. And after an ugly start, I think the most talented veterans on the team will lose their motivation. The Colts could very well bottom out to 3-13. It’s not about how good Peyton Manning is, or how valuable he is; it’s about how the team was built around him.
Extra point How many wins do you think Peyton Manning is worth?
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