In the first of three conversations previewing the upcoming seasons of the tri-state area’s hockey teams, New York Times hockey writers Jeff Z. Klein and Christopher Botta discuss the chances of the Islanders qualifying for the Stanley Cup playoffs for the first time since 2007.
Botta: Jeff, some of our colleagues around N.H.L. press boxes have selected the Islanders as the team most likely to surprise this season in the Eastern Conference. A few have picked them to make the playoffs, while the rest have only gone so far as predicting that they’ll push for a spot. What do you think?
Klein: I think there are likelier teams to surprise than the Isles, but they should improve. Simply having Mark Streit back on the blue line after he missed all of last year should do wonders. The guy’s a horse — look how he made Switzerland competitive at the Olympics, where he was easily among the top four blueliners in the tourney. (I love saying “tourney.”) And they’ve got Michael Grabner, Matt Moulson and of course, John Tavares.
Botta: A healthy Kyle Okposo from game 1 should help, and Frans Nielsen is an effective checking forward capable of scoring 40-50 points. The forward corps gives Islanders supporters reason to be optimistic.
Klein: No question, Chris. Goal scoring should be the last of their worries.
Botta: Defense appears to be a weakness, however, even with Streit back. Andrew MacDonald is very underrated in my opinion and Travis Hamonic has top-pair potential, barring a sophomore setback. But General Manager Garth Snow acknowledged a need for a top defenseman when he traded for the negotiating rights to Christian Ehroff and was unable to sign him. He signed Steve Staios off his training camp tryout and he’s a quality vet, but a third-pair guy. Do you think the Islanders can get by in the back end with Milan Jurcina, Mark Eaton and Mike Mottau and Staios?
Klein: You’ve got a point, Chris. Outside of Streit, there’s not a whole lot there. I’m not as keen on MacDonald and Hamonic as you are. But I’ll say it again: Streit by himself can make even an anonymous defense … acceptable.
Botta: Streit is a terrific player and good choice as the new captain. Keep an eye on Hamonic the next time you see the Islanders live, Jeff. You’ll be converted. MacDonald needs to stay healthy. It’s not easy because he’s got a thin build. But he’s such a smart defenseman.
Now for the real brain-teaser, Jeff. Is it possible to predict what will happen with the Islanders this season in goal? They’ll start the season with Rick DiPietro, Al Montoya and Evgeni Nabokov at the N.H.L. level and three good prospects — Kevin Poulin, Anders Nilsson and Mikko Koskinen — in Bridgeport.
Klein: Even if DiPietro is healthy, he is just not a good goalie, despite the millions the Isles have heaped upon him. Since getting drafted in 2000 he’s had only one good N.H.L. season (2006-7). Nabokov bombed out at SKA in the K.H.L. last year, does not want to be on the Island, and at 36, has all the earmarks of a player fading into retirement.
The club’s best hope is for Montoya to be No. 1 and continue the strong play of his 21-game 2010-11 campaign. Then maybe one of those prospects can be brought up. But really, considering the way the Islanders have handled their goalies over the last 20 years or so, I wouldn’t hold my breath that they’ll handle them right this year.
Botta: Let’s hope they give Poulin all the starts he needs in the minors to develop properly. He’s an under-the-radar prospect, the real deal if he’s ever allowed to come out of DiPietro’s shadow.
On a positive note, I think we can agree it would be a welcome sight if the Islanders can stay in the race. There’s a lot of exciting young talent, especially up front.
Klein: Agreed.
Botta: And that’s with recent top-5 picks Nino Niederreiter and Ryan Strome on the way, plus a few intriguing prospects like the Russians Kirill Kabanov and Kirill Petrov. O.K., Jeff. So where will the Islanders finish in the East?
Klein: I see them improving by about 10 points and moving up from last year’s 14th to 10th or 11th. You?
Botta: They must have an excellent start. This is a franchise that needs positive momentum after the loss of the arena referendum in August and all the uncertainty about the club’s future. They open the season with a four-game homestand against Florida, Minnesota, Tampa Bay and those world-traveling Rangers, so it’s very possible. I’m confident they’ll be in the thick of the race in March for the final two playoff berths.
But in the end, they’ll have a hard time clinching a spot. There’s always a chance of an early-season acquisition or important waiver wire pickup, but I was surprised they didn’t do more this summer to improve the team. Upgrades from Zenon Konopka and Trent Hunter to Marty Reasoner to Brian Rolston are not enough and neither is Staios. I also question whether this team is tough enough. They have enough players to scrap, but are they big enough, durable, able to battle through more than six months against so much size and skill in their conference?
The East is getting stronger. Unless Snow makes a key move, it will be an exciting season – an above .500 season – for an up-and-coming team on the Island, but they’ll finish in 10th place.
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