For weeks, we have been told that the N.F.L. has turned into a passing league. That the pinball-machine passing and scoring numbers were the new norm. That all the rules changes over the past three decades had left us with a game that looks more like the Arena Football League. Then Week 6 came.
You might have heard that the first four weeks of this year featured the four highest single-week passing yardage totals in league history. That was a little misleading, as each of those weeks had 32 teams playing, which was not the case for most of league history. But even on a per-game basis, the first four — and then the fifth — weeks of this season had huge passing numbers. In the first four weeks, the average team gained 246 passing yards and scored 22.8 points per game. In Week 5, the 26 teams playing averaged 239 passing yards and 25 points per game. But this past week, while the average team passed for 232 passing yards, scoring dropped to 20.1 points. And that drop in points can be attributed to the drop in passing touchdowns.
There were 54 passing touchdowns in Week 1, and another 54 in Week 2. Last week — the first with teams on byes — 26 teams passed for 45 touchdowns, an even higher average per team game (1.73) than in the first two weeks. But the 26 teams this past weekend passed for only 27 touchdowns, and that includes the fake-field goal touchdown pass from Oakland punter Shane Lechler. In each of the first two weeks, 18 teams had at least two touchdown passes. This weekend, only 7 of the 24 teams threw for multiple touchdowns.
Roughly half of that drop in production can be attributed to less efficient production in the red zone. In Week 5, quarterbacks threw for 26 touchdowns with only three interceptions in the red zone. Those numbers dropped to 17 touchdowns and 7 interceptions last week.
So what’s the explanation for the drop? We won’t know for a while. Maybe the 2011 season will end up being the most pass-happy season in league history, and this week will just be a blip. Or maybe, 2011 will look a lot like 2009 and 2010.
I looked at all quarterback passing numbers in the first six weeks of each of the past five seasons. Generally, Week 6 isn’t any different from the first five weeks; in other words, it’s not common for the entire league to produce big numbers early and then trail off before mid-season. An obvious explanation would be that the lockout left offenses ahead of defenses for the first month of the season. Maybe that’s true, but I agree with Brian Burke of Advanced NFL Stats that such analysis is intellectually lazy. We generally heard that defenses would be ahead of offenses and that teams with new parts would struggle. Perhaps an explanation is that the early-season production was just a fluke. Consider: Of the 30 weeks in the first six weeks of the past five seasons, the highest three passing-touchdown-per-game ratios came in Weeks 1, 2 and 5 of this season. Those were the only weeks in which teams averaged at least 1.6 passing touchdowns per game. The single lowest week in the study? This past weekend, as quarterbacks passed for just 26 touchdowns in 26 games. After a month of nonstop passing touchdowns and scoring, the correction finally came. Don’t write the obituary on defenses just yet.
Quarterback passing touchdowns, Weeks 1-6 in the 2007-2011 seasons
( 2011 is represented in white, 2010 in green, 2009 in red, 2008 in blue and 2007 in purple, from Footballguys.com)
Pat Shurmur didn’t fall far from Andy Reid
Two quarterbacks are on pace to break the single-season record for pass attempts (691, set by Drew Bledsoe in 1994). Drew Brees is on pace for 704 pass attempts. He has twice led the league in pass attempts since coming to New Orleans, which doesn’t include last season, when he threw over 650 passes. But would you guess the other is Cleveland’s Colt McCoy? After five games, McCoy is on pace for 694 pass attempts. In wins against Indianapolis and Miami, McCoy threw 32 and 39 passes. In all three losses, McCoy has thrown at least 40 passes, and as Cleveland’s schedule becomes more difficult, McCoy may actually stay on this incredible pace.
McCoy has 217 pass attempts in just five starts, after throwing 222 passes in 8 games in 2010. So what happened? Part of the reason is the new head coach, Pat Shurmur. Shurmur was the Eagles’ quarterbacks coach from ‘99 to ‘08, learning under pass-happy guru Andy Reid. Shurmur was upgraded to offensive coordinator in St. Louis, but the team went 1-15 in his first season. In his second year, Shurmur helped the rookie Sam Bradford break the rookie record for pass attempts in a season, even though Bradford actually was well below average on a per attempt basis in 2010.
Shurmur was hired this past off-season to resurrect the Cleveland offense, and his philosophy can best be described as pass first, throw second and, just in case, air it out third. Colt McCoy is no stranger to playing in a pass-happy offense; he starred in a spread offense in college at Texas. In the Fiesta Bowl, he threw 58 times in a win over Ohio State. But McCoy hasn’t taken to Shurmur’s offense so far. Cleveland ranks last in yards per attempt, 30th in net yards per attempt and 26th in adjusted net yards per attempt. But with Peyton Hillis struggling in 2011 and Montario Hardesty failing to pick up the slack, McCoy may end up challenging Bledsoe’s mark for pass attempts in a season. If Brees doesn’t beat him to it first.
Playing defense like it’s 2000
Fans in Baltimore may not understand all the talk about the offensive explosion, and not just because Joe Flacco has been underwhelming. The Baltimore defense has been lights out through five games, ranking in the top three in net yards per pass attempt, adjusted net yards per pass attempt, rushing yards, rushing yards per carry and rushing first downs per game allowed. The Ravens have forced 14 turnovers in five games, the highest rate in the league. Baltimore leads the league in points allowed per game. But there’s one stat that really drives the point home.
The Ravens have allowed four passing touchdowns. They’ve allowed one rushing touchdown. And they’ve scored four touchdowns, one each from Lardarius Webb, Haloti Ngata, Jarret Johnson and Jameel McClain. With coming games against the Jaguars and the Cardinals, don’t look for the defense to slow down anytime soon.
Chase Stuart contributes to the Pro-Football-Reference.com blog and to Footballguys.com.
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