N.F.L. Week 8 Game Probabilities (Intangibles Are Baked In)

Brian Burke, a former Navy pilot who has taken up the less dangerous hobby of N.F.L. statistical analysis, operates Advanced NFL Stats, a blog about football, math and human behavior.

It’s a common criticism of statistics: Stats don’t measure the intangibles. You know — the drive, character, heart, discipline, leadership, teamwork, and all the other desirable qualities in athletes. Except that they do. Stats measure the effects of what we call intangibles, and always have.

Although there is no exercise at the scouting combine that can directly gauge a player’s will to win, it still manifests in his performance on the field. And as long as the stats reflect what actually transpires between the sidelines, they capture the effects of the competitors’ intangible qualities. And if the intangibles don’t show up in the numbers, then they didn’t matter in the first place.

What statistics can’t do is separate the physical-material tangible qualities, such as speed, strength and skill, from the intangible ones. They are captured together. But that’s no different than trying to separate the effect of an athlete’s speed from the effect of his strength. All qualities, whether tangible or intangible, are inseparable using statistics alone.

If a great player is also a great leader who inspires his teammates to play better, then that will be reflected in his team’s statistics. It may not be captured in his personal stats, but that has always been true of the effects of teammates on one another’s performance, whether tangible or intangible.

There are exceptions, usually temporary. If a team is one win from the playoffs, and its opponents have been eliminated from contention for weeks, then the team stats to-date won’t fully reflect the relative motivation of each team. But once the game is done, the contest’s statistics will reflect the difference in motivation, assuming that it mattered.

Don’t get me wrong. I recognize that numbers are not the only way to look at a sport, and I’m in favor of good character and the will to win as much as the next guy. But to the extent that these qualities influence play on the field, the numbers will capture their effect.

Here are your game probabilities for Week 8, with all the intangibles included.

 

For more on the prediction model and its accuracy, see this post.