Jason and Justin Sablich are here to help you with your fantasy football team. The Sablich brothers will provide fantasy football advice throughout the season on this blog and on Twitter (@5thDownFantasy).
DeMarco Murray (vs. Philadelphia) was listed here last week and all he did was break Emmitt Smith’s team record of 237 rushing yards, so we think he earned another mention. Felix Jones will not be active and Tashard Choice is banged up with a shoulder injury, making Murray the starter yet again against an Eagles team allowing almost 5 yards a carry this season. He’s among our favorable matchup picks for Week 8.
Favorable/Unfavorable Quarterback Matchups
Favorable
Ben Roethlisberger (PIT) vs. New England – Big Ben is starting to hit a groove with his second game with at least three touchdowns over the last three weeks, and his 361 passing yards against Arizona was tops among all quarterbacks in Week 7. Last season against New England, he actually beat that mark, throwing for 387 yards. The Patriots are allowing 24 fantasy points a game to quarterback, good enough for the fourth best quarterback matchup this season.
Philip Rivers (SD) vs. Kansas City – With his 11 interceptions on the year, something is clearly off with one of the most accurate gunslingers in the game. But we can blame a stingy Jets secondary for some of his struggles last week, despite what Randy McMichael thinks. The Chiefs held Rivers to 6 fantasy points in Week 3, but they still rank as a middle of the road opponent yielding close to 20 fantasy points a game to the position.
Joe Flacco (ATL) vs. Arizona – Flacco’s up-and-down season reached a low last week with his worst outing this year (137 yards, 3.6 yards/attempt). He has twice topped 300 yards passing after dismal performances in 2011. If that trend continues, we could expect a solid outing against fantasy’s sixth best quarterback matchup (22 FPPG).
Eli Manning (NYG) vs. Miami – Fantasy’s 10th ranked quarterback (127 points) heading into Week 8 will have a great chance to add to those totals against the winless Dolphins, who are allowing opposing quarterbacks 24.7 fantasy points a game (top QB matchup).
Unfavorable
Tim Tebow (DEN) vs. Detroit – Tebow and his owners were sitting on an ugly 4 for 14, 40-yard stat line for three and a half quarters before a dramatic 121-yard, 2-touchdown, fourth-quarter turnaround saved the day. He may need another miracle against the Lions, who have allowed just one 20-point fantasy game to the position this season (Romo, Week 4). There are safer QB starts this week.
Tony Romo (DAL) vs. Philadelphia — Season lows in the attempts (24) and yardage category (166) certainly were not what most people expected Sunday against the lowly Rams defense, but when your running back runs for 253 yards, you won’t be asked to do much throwing. This week he will be up against a Philadelphia defense that has held QBs to a 12-point fantasy average over the last two Sundays.
Kevin Kolb (ARZ) vs. Baltimore — There’s no good reason to mess around with Kolb this week, seeing how the Ravens are coughing up just 8 fantasy points a game to opposing QBs so far this season.
Tom Brady (NE) vs. Pittsburgh — This is a tough matchup on paper (fourth toughest), but Brady has had a lot of success against the Steelers over the course of career, having thrown for at least 350 yards and 7 TDs in his last three meetings with them. Keep him active unless you have a Drew Brees sitting on your bench, and if you do, that’s just not fair.
Favorable/Unfavorable Running Back Matchups
Favorable
Chris Johnson (TEN) vs. Indianapolis – According to John McClain of The Houston Chronicle, ”There’s an imposter wearing Chris Johnson’s uniform” this season, referring to the running back’s squeamishness for contact. Did the lockout and the big payday really change this guy that much? One thing is for certain, with a $30 million salary to account for, he isn’t going to be benched any time soon. Nobody allows more fantasy points to running backs than the Colts, so find a spot for him in your lineup and hope for the best.
Pierre Thomas (NO) vs. St. Louis – Fresh off a season high in touches (15) and yards (125), Thomas could see another solid dose of work against the league’s worst run defense with Mark Ingram dealing with a heel injury.
Ryan Torain/Roy Helu (WAS) vs. Buffalo – Our condolences to Torain owners who were erring on the side of logic by expecting him to get the bulk of the load last week. On the bright side, Tim Hightower’s season-ending injury will make it harder for the notoriously devious Coach Mike Shanahan to mess with our heads. Logic would suggest that Torain will be the featured back this weekend, with Helu handling third-down duties, and the matchup is another great one with Buffalo allowing the third most rushing yards in the league. It would still be best to consider Torain a low-end RB2 or flex option, just to be safe.
Unfavorable
Maurice Morris (DET) vs. Denver – Morris and the backup Keiland Williams will take turns trying to run on a suddenly stout Denver run defense that is now considered the fourth toughest matchup for the position.
Peyton Hillis/Montario Hardesty (CLE) vs. San Francisco – Hillis is expected to return to his starting role this week, leaving Hardesty to again pick up the scraps. Both backs will have a hard time finding running lanes on the 49ers, who are allowing just 74 yards a game on the ground and have yet to give up a rushing score.
Bernard Scott (CIN) vs. Seattle – Scott will see plenty of touches this week as the Bengals aren’t expected to deviate from their run-heavy ways despite Cedric Benson’s absence. The problem is, the Seahawks are more than adequate at stopping opposing ground attacks. No running back has reached the century mark against them this season.
Knowshon Moreno (DEN) vs. Detroit – He’s ready for an expanded role thanks to a McGahee injury and would appear to be a decent start, as the Lions have faltered against the run over the last few weeks. They have fared well against pass-catching backs, however, yielding just 74 yards on 11 receptions over that time span and have yet to give up a TD to an RB through the air this season. Moreno has conceded that he is still not fully healed from a hamstring injury and will have to share the load with Lance Ball so keep expectations in check.
Favorable/Unfavorable Wide Receiver Matchups
Favorable
Anquan Boldin (BAL) vs. Arizona – No. 1 receivers have averaged 15 fantasy points a game against this unit, with the only sore spot being a 2-point dud from Percy Harvin. Then again, is Harvin really considered a No. 1 option anymore with the season he has had?
Nate Washington (TEN) vs. Indianapolis – The Colts are coming off a video-game-like beatdown from the Saints in which Marques Colston turned in a 98-yard, 2-touchdown performance, making him the fifth No. 1 receiver to reach double digits against this secondary this season.
A.J. Green (CIN) vs. Seattle – Greg Little failed to capitalize on a reeling Seattle secondary in Week 7, but much of the blame can be put on his quarterback, Colt McCoy, who was highly inaccurate in the first half, not to mention completely terrified of throwing a pass for more than 10 yards. The Bengals’ emerging duo of Andy Dalton and Green will pose a much more formidable challenge.
Jabar Gaffney (WAS) vs. Buffalo – You can’t expect more than spotty WR3 production from this guy, but he will be Washington’s No. 1 wideout for the next five to seven weeks with the loss of Santana Moss, and Buffalo does surrender 24 fantasy points a game to opposing receivers, meaning you can do worse if you’re in need of some bye-week help.
Unfavorable
Michael Crabtree (SF) vs. Cleveland – Joe Haden returned last week to continue his dominance over the position, limiting Sidney Rice to just two catches for 38 yards. This week he figures to shut down Crabtree, unless Braylon Edwards can return to the field and make enough noise to justify Haden’s attention.
Sidney Rice (SEA) vs. Cincinnati – Speaking of Rice, things won’t get much easier for him this week against Leon Hall and the Bengals, who have limited opposing No. 1 threats to a 5-point fantasy average over the last three weeks.
Reggie Wayne (IND) vs. Tennessee – Wayne hasn’t had a good fantasy day since Week 1 and that has many owners debating whether to cut him loose to the wire. After this week, that decision may get easier as the Titans come into this one ranked as the 7th toughest on opposing wideouts.
Miles Austin (DAL) vs. Philadelphia – Make that two straight weeks in which Miles has failed to capitalize against a weak secondary (NE, STL). Things take a turn for the worst as the Cowboys visit Philadelphia, where a No. 1 receiver has yet to post more than 8 fantasy points in a game (Roddy White, Week 2).
Favorable/Unfavorable Tight End Matchups
Favorable
Jake Ballard (NYG) vs. Miami – Does Jermichael Finley or Tony Gonzalez have you in a bye-week fix? You might want to give the Giants’ emerging tight end a shot. He has been flying under the radar in the Giants’ passing game and Manning has been taking advantage of it to the tune of 11 catches for 186 yards and 2 touchdowns this October. The Dolphins are yielding 11 fantasy points a game to guys like Ballard, making them the second best matchup a tight end can have.
Unfavorable
Heath Miller (PIT) vs. New England – The Patriots are allowing just 6 points a game to tight ends, and despite hitting paydirt in two of his last three games, Miller will spend most of his time trying to block.
Favorable/Unfavorable Defense/Special Teams Matchups
Favorable
San Francisco vs. Cleveland, New Orleans vs. St. Louis, Cinncinnati vs. Seattle, Buffalo vs. Washington, Detroit vs. Denver.
Unfavorable
Pittsburgh vs. New England, Dallas vs. Philadelphia, Philadelphia vs. Dallas, Jacksonville vs. Houston, Minnesota vs. Carolina.
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