Dan Wheldon crash: IndyCar revises team members in probe

The Izod IndyCar Series on Wednesday revised its information about the team investigating the death of driver Dan Wheldon from injuries in a 15-car crash at Las Vegas Motor Speedway.

The series initially said Tuesday that the Federation Internationale de l'Automobile (FIA), the governing body for Formula One racing, and the Automobile Competition Committee of the United States, an umbrella organization of racing sanctioning bodies, would assist in its probe of Sunday's accident.

But "it was incorrect to state that either ACCUS or FIA are formally involved," IndyCar said without explanation in a revised statement. It added, however, that "individual members of various motorsports bodies" would help in the investigation.

IndyCar reiterated that it hoped to report preliminary findings about the crash "within the next several weeks."

A public memorial for Wheldon, who was 33 and a two-time Indianapolis 500 winner, is scheduled Sunday in Indianapolis.

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-- Jim Peltz

Photo: Dan Wheldon after winning the Indianapolis 500 last May 29. Credit: Paul Sancya/Associated Press

Correction Has Arrived for N.F.L. Passing Barrage

For weeks, we have been told that the N.F.L. has turned into a passing league. That the pinball-machine passing and scoring numbers were the new norm. That all the rules changes over the past three decades had left us with a game that looks more like the Arena Football League.  Then Week 6 came.

You might have heard that the first four weeks of this year featured the four highest single-week passing yardage totals in league history. That was a little misleading, as each of those weeks had 32 teams playing, which was not the case for most of league history. But even on a per-game basis, the first four — and then the fifth — weeks of this season had huge passing numbers.  In the first four weeks, the average team gained 246 passing yards and scored 22.8 points per game. In Week 5, the 26 teams playing averaged 239 passing yards and 25 points per game. But this past week, while the average team passed for 232 passing yards, scoring dropped to 20.1 points. And that drop in points can be  attributed to the drop in passing touchdowns.

There were 54 passing touchdowns in Week 1, and another 54 in Week 2. Last week — the first with teams on byes — 26 teams passed for 45 touchdowns, an even higher average per team game (1.73) than in the first two weeks. But the 26 teams this past weekend passed for only 27 touchdowns, and that includes the fake-field goal touchdown pass from Oakland punter Shane Lechler. In each of the first two weeks, 18 teams had at least two touchdown passes. This weekend, only 7 of the 24 teams threw for multiple touchdowns.

Roughly half of that drop in production can be attributed to less efficient production in the red zone. In Week 5, quarterbacks threw for 26 touchdowns with only three interceptions in the red zone. Those numbers dropped to 17 touchdowns and 7 interceptions last week.

So what’s the explanation for the drop? We won’t know for a while. Maybe the 2011 season will end up being the most pass-happy season in league history, and this week will just be a blip. Or maybe, 2011 will look a lot like 2009 and 2010.

I looked at all quarterback passing numbers in the first six weeks of each of the past five seasons. Generally, Week 6 isn’t any different from the first five weeks; in other words, it’s not common for the entire league to produce big numbers early and then trail off before mid-season. An obvious explanation would be that the lockout left offenses ahead of defenses for the first month of the season. Maybe that’s true, but I agree with Brian Burke of Advanced NFL Stats that such analysis is intellectually lazy. We generally heard that defenses would be ahead of offenses and that teams with new parts would struggle. Perhaps an explanation is that the early-season production was just a fluke. Consider: Of the 30 weeks in the first six weeks of the past five seasons, the highest three passing-touchdown-per-game ratios came in Weeks 1, 2 and 5 of this season. Those were the only weeks in which teams averaged at least 1.6 passing touchdowns per game. The single lowest week in the study? This past weekend, as quarterbacks passed for just 26 touchdowns in 26 games. After a month of nonstop passing touchdowns and scoring, the correction finally came. Don’t write the obituary on defenses just yet.

Quarterback passing touchdowns, Weeks 1-6 in the 2007-2011 seasons
( 2011 is represented in white, 2010 in green, 2009 in red, 2008 in blue and 2007 in purple, from Footballguys.com)

Pat Shurmur didn’t fall far from Andy Reid

Two quarterbacks are on pace to break the single-season record for pass attempts (691, set by Drew Bledsoe in 1994). Drew Brees is on pace for 704 pass attempts.  He has twice led the league in pass attempts since coming to New Orleans, which doesn’t include last season, when he threw over 650 passes. But would you guess the other is Cleveland’s Colt McCoy? After five games, McCoy is on pace for 694 pass attempts. In wins against Indianapolis and Miami, McCoy threw 32 and 39 passes.  In all three losses, McCoy has thrown at least 40 passes, and as Cleveland’s schedule becomes more difficult, McCoy may actually stay on this incredible pace.

McCoy has 217 pass attempts in just five starts, after throwing 222 passes in 8 games in 2010. So what happened? Part of the reason is the new head coach, Pat Shurmur. Shurmur was the Eagles’ quarterbacks coach from ‘99 to ‘08, learning under pass-happy guru Andy Reid. Shurmur was upgraded to offensive coordinator in St. Louis, but the team went 1-15 in his first season. In his second year, Shurmur helped the rookie Sam Bradford break the rookie record for pass attempts in a season, even though Bradford actually was well below average on a per attempt basis in 2010.

Shurmur was hired this past off-season to resurrect the Cleveland offense, and his philosophy can best be described as pass first, throw second and, just in case, air it out third. Colt McCoy is no stranger to playing in a pass-happy offense; he starred in a spread offense in college at Texas. In the Fiesta Bowl, he threw 58 times in a win over Ohio State. But McCoy hasn’t taken to Shurmur’s offense so far. Cleveland ranks last in yards per attempt, 30th in net yards per attempt and 26th in adjusted net yards per attempt. But with Peyton Hillis struggling in 2011 and Montario Hardesty failing to pick up the slack, McCoy may end up challenging Bledsoe’s mark for pass attempts in a season. If Brees doesn’t beat him to it first.

Playing defense like it’s 2000

Fans in Baltimore may not understand all the talk about the offensive explosion, and not just because Joe Flacco has been underwhelming. The Baltimore defense has been lights out through five games, ranking in the top three in net yards per pass attempt, adjusted net yards per pass attempt, rushing yards, rushing yards per carry and rushing first downs per game allowed. The Ravens have forced 14 turnovers in five games, the highest rate in the league. Baltimore leads the league in points allowed per game. But there’s one stat that really drives the point home.

The Ravens have allowed four passing touchdowns. They’ve allowed one rushing touchdown. And they’ve scored four touchdowns, one each from Lardarius Webb, Haloti Ngata, Jarret Johnson and Jameel McClain. With coming games against the Jaguars and the Cardinals, don’t look for the defense to slow down anytime soon.

Chase Stuart contributes to the Pro-Football-Reference.com blog and to Footballguys.com.

Much-Needed Win for Jets, but What Does It Mean?

The prevailing emotion in the Jets’ locker room late Monday night after they beat the hapless Miami Dolphins, 24-6, was that of relief. Never has being an average team with a 3-3 record felt so good.

“To get the feeling of winning, when you don’t get that three times in a row, you start doubting yourself,” guard Brandon Moore said.

The Jets did what they expected, and were expected, to do against Miami. They won and won decisively. And still, the feeling exists that the Jets did not play that well, or as well as the 18-point margin of victory indicated.

It took 24 minutes for them to register their first first down. They gained 10 yards of offense in the first quarter. On defense, they failed to protect the edge on the Dolphins’ first play from scrimmage, watching Reggie Bush bolt around the right end for 36 yards, and a few breakdowns led to some big Miami gains.

Better teams than Miami capitalize on those mistakes, and one of those better teams happens to be visiting MetLife Stadium next Sunday: the 4-1 San Diego Chargers. By winning Monday night, can the Jets resume dreaming of the playoffs, or did the victory conceal some ever-present flaws?

Week 6 Film Review: Eagles Up, Grossman Down

A closer look at Sunday’s games, with the benefit of film analysis:

Eagles O vs. Redskins D

Philadelphia had a shrewd plan. In the air, the Eagles featured hitch routes that took advantage of the off-coverage techniques that Redskins corners like to play. On the ground, they featured delay off-tackle runs. On those plays, off the snap, the Eagles’ offensive tackles allowed the Redskins outside linebackers to penetrate off the edges. This made the outside linebacker speed actually work against Washington and also masked the limitations of Todd Herremans (playing a little out of position at left tackle) and Winston Justice (first start of the season at right tackle). Brilliant. This concept was also used on screen passes (Brent Celek’s touchdown being most notable). Not every team can use this sort of delay approach; the stop-start nature of it requires a running back with outstanding initial quickness and laterally agility. Few, if any, running backs are better at this than LeSean McCoy. As for other Eagles, Michael Vick ran well, was accurate and had a firm grasp on his straightforward reads. When Herremans wasn’t asked to steer Brian Orakpo outside, he was asked to make blocks at the second level. He did a fantastic job. Celek had a few issues catching the ball cleanly, but, for the first time in a long time, was a focal point in the passing game.

Redskins O vs. Eagles D

Rex Grossman was as bad as the numbers indicate. However, he was playing behind an offensive line that lost both of its left side starters early. When underrated Kory Lichtensteiger went down, Will Montgomery moved to left guard and Erik Cook played center. Both struggled against the energetic, forceful Eagles defensive tackles (Mike Patterson was particularly impactful). Left tackle Sean Locklear, replacing Trent Williams, also had some hiccups. This doesn’t come close to excusing Grossman’s poor performance. He was frenetic in the pocket and simply did not read the safety on several throws (Kurt Coleman’s anticipation and athleticism generated three interceptions). When he wasn’t tossing picks, Grossman was inaccurate under duress and throwing outside the numbers. John Beck led the Skins down the field late, but he had some struggles with arm strength and presnap reads. Finally, Philadelphia’s much-maligned linebacking group played well operating in fewer wide-9 defensive fronts. Jamar Chaney was sharp in run reads and Brian Rolle was heady in zone coverage.

Saints O vs. Bucs D

The Bucs did a 180 from a week ago, seeming to be extremely well prepared. Their front seven played fast and successfully limited Darren Sproles’s runs after catches. Linebacker Geno Hayes was dynamic in the first half. Up front, end Michael Bennett was disruptive against the run, and opposite him, rookie Adrian Clayborn ate left tackle Jermon Bushrod’s lunch (no surprise). Brian Price was solid if not spectacular at nose tackle, plugging early and penetrating late. The Saints were able to move the ball in the second half, primarily because Drew Brees is a magician with incredible pocket awareness. Tight end Jimmy Graham remained the go-to guy, lining up all over the formation. There’s simply no answer for him (he was often defended by Ronde Barber). That said, the Bucs’ secondary played well over all and tipped the scales with a few opportunistic turnovers.

Bucs O vs. Saints D

Josh Freeman rebounded well, coming off the worst performance of his professional career. After unnecessarily fleeing the pocket at San Francisco last week, Freeman commendably stayed home and kept his eyes downfield against an aggressive Saints rush. The Saints never did reach him (credit the poised Bucs O-line). Still, it was not the crispest of passing attacks. Freeman often threw with defenders in his face, which was a problem. Much of Freeman’s arm strength comes from his legs; when he’s not on the move or doesn’t have room to step into his throw, his ball tends to float. This allowed time for the Saints corners to swat passes. Bucs wideout Mike Williams needs to do a better job of attacking the ball when defenders are draped all over him. The difference in the game was Tampa Bay’s ability to generate timely big plays and get running back Earnest Graham, who’s more dynamic than LeGarrette Blount, to the second level.

Rams O vs. Packers D

The Rams executed well enough – they just don’t have the receiving talent to compete with a world champion defense. The Packers had no trouble containing the receivers one-on-one, whether it was press-man or, more often, moving zone concepts. Wideout Danario Alexander has a good frame but must improve his body control and fight harder for positioning versus man coverage. Rookie Greg Salas caught everything thrown to him underneath, but what he’ll be remembered for from this game was showing up Sam Bradford when he didn’t get the ball late in the fourth (blatant immaturity). For the Packers, two things stood out: A.J. Hawk (fantastic quickness and execution on green dog blitzes, and he played with speed and recognition patrolling underneath) and the cornerbacks’ speed and stoutness in run support (Charles Woodson might be the smartest run-defending defensive back in the league).

Packers O vs. Rams D

The Packers evaluated the Rams on film and decided that their defensive back seven could be manipulated with play-action and play fakes. That was the crux of the plan in the first half, and it worked to perfection on Green Bay’s first two touchdowns (an outstanding rollout and long loft from Aaron Rodgers to James Jones on the first one, a pump fake on a double move by Jordy Nelson against Al Harris on the second one). Green Bay’s front five was outstanding in pass protection (particularly Bryan Bulaga, who started at right tackle in his first game back from a Week 3 knee injury) and Rodgers was sensational in the way he bought himself time. One concern from this game for the Packers could be their ground attack. Green Bay’s offensive line was unable to move St. Louis’s defensive line – especially inside. That limited what Green Bay’s running backs could do against a Rams linebacking corps that is not playing with confidence or clarity these days.

Colts O vs. Bengals D

The longer Curtis Painter held the ball, the worse things seemed to be for the Colts. The more complex the situation, the more likely Painter was to make a mistake. It was wise of offensive coordinator Clyde Christensen to compose a gameplan that featured quick slants and underneath seam throws. Those plays had Painter making one read and striking. That said, the Bengals are an aggressive, athletic bunch, so it’s not enough to think you can simply out-execute them. Their defensive line didn’t dominate, but it controlled the trenches. Their cornerbacks kept everything in front of them (save for Morgan Trent’s poor pass interference penalty in the end zone). It still remains to be seen how this defense will respond once it encounters a high-flying passing attack. Cincinnati’s safeties have not been challenged in coverage thus far.

Bengals O vs. Colts D

This was Andy Dalton’s most impressive performance as a young pro. The rookie had a clear picture of Indy’s zone defense and confidently knew where and when his throwing windows would open up. He had great timing with Jerome Simpson (a quick-breaking slant receiver who can pluck the ball) and allowed the sinewy A.J. Green to capitalize on big-play opportunities. Dalton’s accuracy was sharp both in the pocket and on designed rollouts (often off play-action, which sliced the field in half and defined his reads). The Colts’ speedy linebackers and safeties were excellent against the run (Pat Angerer was everywhere) but pass-rushers Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis seemed to be non-factors. Credit Bengals offensive tackles Andrew Whitworth and Andre Smith for that.

Andy Benoit is an N.F.L. analyst for CBSSports.com and founder of NFLTouchdown.com. He can be reached at andy.benoit@NFLTouchdown.com or @Andy_Benoit.

Jerry Jones Was Right; Cowboys Should Have Passed

Jason Garrett has received a lot of criticism for his decision to call three straight runs while up, 16-13, with 3 minutes 36 seconds to play in Sunday’s game in New England, perhaps the harshest of which came from his boss. “We rolled the dice at the end and went conservative,” the Cowboys’ owner, Jerry Jones, said, ”and it bit us. You always second-guess whether or not we should have tried to run a little offense down there instead of running it three times.”

Jones is often misguided in his critiques of coaches and players, but this one is spot-on. Garrett’s decision to keep the ball on the ground late in game was the wrong one for several reasons, not the least of which is that running the ball was statistically inferior to passing on each of the Cowboys’ three offensive plays. There is some evidence of this in Advanced NFL Stats’ Win Probability Graph, which showed that the Cowboys’ odds of coming out victorious dropped from 85 percent at the start of the drive to 74 percent within two plays. With only a few minutes to play and the ball in the hands of your offense, an 11 percent dip is rather significant.

Of course, those percentages would be different had the Cowboys executed Garrett’s calls, but was there really optimism to think the offense would do anything but go three-and-out if ordered to run? The Cowboys were averaging just 3.67 yards per carry up until that point, with 17 of their rushing yards coming on a fluky Tony Romo scramble. Only 22.2 percent of their runs went for more than four yards.

Defenders of Garrett might argue that Dallas had held Tom Brady to 6.59 yards per attempt and the Patriots to 13 points through 57-plus minutes, so there was reason to believe they could halt New England if the ground attack stumbled. With 3:36 to play and the Pats having a full arsenal of timeouts, however, the approach should have been more focused on moving the ball in a positive direction rather than running down the clock. A failure to record a first down, as we witnessed, put the Patriots in a situation similar to one in which they may have found themselves had Dallas gone three-and-out using its regular offense.

The obvious drain-the-clock offensive strategy was ineffective, and by the time Brady took the field, New England was equipped with 2:31 and a timeout.  On top of that, the notion that Brady was somehow significantly less likely to move the ball for at least a game-tying field goal simply because the offense sputtered a bit prior to that final drive is magical thinking. No N.F.L. coach should feel safe when Brady’s Patriots are within one score and have possession, especially with over two minutes to play.

The same sort of gambler’s fallacy that may have been the origin of Garrett’s misconceptions about his defense’s chances of thwarting Brady was also probably a major contributor to his late-game play-calling. Garrett seemed to go conservative late because he failed in an ultra-aggressive approach that led to Dallas’s 24-point blown lead against the Lions two weeks ago.

Disregarding the fact that the game situations were drastically different, Garrett needs to improve at not allowing past results to influence present decisions. He shouldn’t shy away from consulting advanced statistics and using them in specific game situations. It’s like regularly hitting on 18 in blackjack. When you consistently disregard the numbers, the house (or home team) always wins.

Jonathan Bales is the founder of DallasCowboysTimes.com, a site dedicated to film study and statistical analysis of the Cowboys.

NBA mediation talks end for the day, are set to resume Thursday

Another day, another grueling negotiating session.

Wednesday's mediation session between NBA owners and locked-out players was halted before 4 p.m. PDT, and talks are to resume Thursday.

Federal mediator George Cohen told reporters in New York that Wednesday's session was stopped after nearly nine hours of talks to allow NBA owners and Commissioner David Stern to attend a previously scheduled NBA Board of Governors meeting, also in New York.

Cohen has instituted a gag order on the labor meetings as both sides work to bridge gaps over how to split basketball-related income (BRI). Last season, players received 57% of BRI, or about $2.17 billion in total salaries.

The sides had a 16-hour marathon session with Cohen that started Tuesday and ended early Wednesday morning EDT.

USC basketball: Trojans get verbal commit from ex-Wake Forest guard

J.T. Terrell, a former Wake Forest guard who is currently enrolled at junior college, verbally committed to transfer to USC on Wednesday afternoon, according to multiple sources close to the situation who were not authorized to speak on the record.

Terrell, a 6-foot-3, 175-pound guard, will have two seasons of eligibility remaining beginning in 2012-13. He was considered one of the top high school guard recruits in 2010 and is arguably the top overall junior college prospect nationally this year. 

He's expected to sign on Nov. 9, the first day of the fall signing period. He would be a great boost for a team that this season has zero seniors in its rotation. He's noted for his athleticism and three-point shooting ability. 

At Wake Forest in 2010-11, he played in 32 games as a freshman and was second on the team in scoring (11.1 points per game). He also ranked second on the team in assists (1.6)) and fourth in steals (0.7).

He scored in double figures in 16 games, including three games of 20 or more points. His 32 points on Nov. 11 against Iowa, a game in which he made seven of 11 three-point shots, were a season-high for an Atlantic Coast Conference freshman.