Andy Benoit is previewing all 32 N.F.L. teams. He starts his look at the A.F.C. South with the Jaguars.
Dec. 19, 2010. Indianapolis: The Colts lead the Jaguars by 10 with 1:42 remaining in a do-or-die bout for the A.F.C. South division title. Jacksonville has the ball at its 29. On first-and-10, quarterback David Garrard drops back and dumps a pass to backup running back Rashad Jennings, who had come in for the injured star Maurice Jones-Drew (knee). Gain of 12.
Next play: a 14-yarder to Jennings, but a Jordan Black holding penalty brings it back. So, first-and-20. Garrard finds Jennings again for six yards. Then again for another six. On third-and-eight, he fires a 26-yard strike over the middle to wideout Jason Hill. First down. Jags call their final timeout. They’re in business. Except one problem. There are now only 39 seconds left in the game. The risk Garrard took on third-and-eight was one he needed to force on first-and-10.
This problem was like credit card debt: symptomatic of bigger issues. Down by 10 with just under two minutes left – that’s when you call on your quarterback. It’s a steep uphill climb, no doubt, but it’s not impossible. The Jaguars learned on that December day in Indianapolis what they probably already knew deep down: they didn’t have someone to call on. It would have been better if Garrard had thrown a deep interception on first-and-10. At least then he would have been striving for the climb. Instead, he whimpered out with safe but irrelevant dinks-and-dunks. It’s not that Garrard didn’t have heart or confidence – it’s that he didn’t know any other way to play.
The most painful part of this for the owner Wayne Weaver and the Jacksonville front office was that, two and a half years before, Garrard had made several big plays (primarily with his legs) in the team’s wild-card road win at Pittsburgh. Not long after that triumph, in a move that now looks like an impulsive marriage proposal made right after a night of passion, the Jaguars signed Garrard to a seven-year, $63 million deal, making him the highest-paid player in franchise history. But Garrard would go on to be exactly what he was all along: a middling N.F.L. quarterback.
And so the Jaguars filed for divorce this past April by trading their first-and second-round picks to move up six spots and draft Missouri quarterback Blaine Gabbert 10th over all. The last time the Jaguars traded up in the first round to correct a glaring weakness was 2008, when they gave up a first-round pick plus two third-rounders and a fourth-rounder to draft defensive end Derrick Harvey. Long story short, Harvey is now a backup in Denver and the Jaguars have ranked 30th or worse in sacks each of the past two years.
The Harvey whiff set this franchise back and helped lead to a managerial change (the new general manager Gene Smith replaced the vice president of player personnel Shack Harris as the top decision maker in 2009). But its ramifications would feel mild compared with what a Gabbert whiff might entail. The ninth-year coach Jack Del Rio probably isn’t even concerned with that right now. If the Jags don’t continue their upward trend in 2011 – they were 5-11 n ’08, 7-9 in ’09 and 8-8 in ’10 – he’ll be long gone by the time an accurate assessment of Gabbert can be made.
For Del Rio, the organization’s decision to go in a different direction at quarterback came at least a year too late. He’s now caught in “win now!” mode – Weaver even said after last season that failure to reach the ’11 playoffs would result in the coaching staff’s termination – which means that in choosing his starter for 2011, he can’t afford to give any extra consideration to Gabbert’s development.
Maybe that’s the way it’s supposed to be, though. After all, this is one situation where we can fully believe the coach when he says he’ll play the guy that gives the team the best chance to win.
Offense
Before training camp, it looked as if the lockout was going to make Del Rio’s decision easy. No off-season activities meant no experience for Blaine Gabbert, who is making the difficult transition from college spread offense (which bears little resemblance to an N.F.L. spread offense) to Dirk Koetter’s traditional dropback offense (which also bears little resemblance to an N.F.L. spread offense…or a college spread offense). Thus, the 33-year-old David Garrard would be the starter by default.
But then Garrard showed up with back problems, which tend to be mercurial. And so it was Gabbert taking the early reps in camp and starting the preseason opener. Maybe he’ll be the starter by default. Or, more likely, maybe Garrard will get healthy but be rusty, and Del Rio will be faced with the same agonizing dilemma he started with.
We know the Jaguars don’t believe they can be great with Garrard. They’re right. His arm strength is ordinary at best and he’s not a sharp progression passer. Scrambling ability aside, he can only play within the basic confines of an offense, which means just about any big play the Jags strive for has to be deliberately manufactured by Koetter. That’s a caretaking quarterback to a T.
Exacerbating the passing game’s mediocrity is an underwhelming stash of resources at wide receiver. Jason Hill runs well and can go over the middle, but there’s a reason he has caught only 51 passes in his five-year career. Mike Thomas can admiringly be described as a compressed version of Hines Ward, but stocky 5’8” receivers with good track speed but only decent football speed don’t become stars, no matter how excellent their blocking might be.
The fight for the No. 3 receiving job is uninspiring. In one corner is the oft-injured third-year pro Jarrett Dillard. In the other is Cecil Shorts, a fourth-round rookie from Division III Mount Union. Possibly in the mix is Kassim Osgood, whose business card has always had “special teamer” written in bigger font than “wide receiver.”
Barren as the wide receiver position might be, it’s not a completely hopeless passing game for Gabbert or Garrard. Pro Bowl tight end Marcedes Lewis is coming off a breakout season in which he not only posted career numbers but, perhaps more important, proved he could be genuinely effective as a movable chess piece in a variety of formations. Koetter can now line Lewis up just about anywhere on the field, which, with Maurice Jones-Drew’s receiving prowess out of the backfield, lends the Jaguars mismatch-creating opportunities they haven’t had before.
Jones-Drew is the near-perfect football player. He’s a smart, tenacious leader. He catches passes and picks up blitzers with estimable aptitude. He totes the rock inside with authority – you’ve heard the bowling ball analogies by now – and even more effectively outside with speed. He’s the reason the Jaguars ranked third in rushing last season and the reason there’s hope for this fluctuating offense.
If Jones-Drew is unavailable (he spent the off-season rehabbing from knee surgery but should be fine), the Jags are in trouble. Backup Rashad Jennings flashes some intriguing tackle-breaking potential (he runs with the same springy power of Ryan Torain) but he’s not a featured back. Then again, perhaps anyone could excel behind fullback Greg Jones, the quickest, nastiest lead-blocker in the N.F.L.
Whoever is quarterback will be reading the defenses diligently (slowly), which puts pressure on high-drafted offensive tackles Eugene Monroe and Eben Britton to grow considerably in their third seasons. Monroe must get more assertive on the left side; he has a tendency to get caught with his hands down in pass protection and become reactive. Britton is a bit of a fistfighter who is more inclined to survive than thrive, which is fine for a right tackle. To survive he must bounce back from last season’s torn labrum (shoulder) and this season’s lingering back issues. If he doesn’t, journeyman utility backup Tony Moll will have to step in.
Will Rackley figures to start at left guard at some point, but even though he’s unusually polished for a third-round rookie from a Football Championship Subdivision school (Lehigh), there still figures to be a learning curve. Thus, injury prone ex-Packer Jason Spitz could fill this spot initially. Well-worn veteran center Brad Meester and limited but improving right guard Uche Nwaneri round out the interior front.
Defense
Pass-rushers don’t grow on trees, but even if they did, this team probably wouldn’t know how to pick ‘em. Whether it’s draft picks like Harvey and Quentin Groves or free agent signings like Reggie Hayward or Hugh Douglas, this organization has never had success with infusing instant pass-rushing talent. The most recent disappointment is Aaron Kampman.
The Jaguars signed Kampman last season knowing he was coming off a torn left ACL. Eight games and four sacks into 2010, he tore his right ACL in practice. He’s returning again but in a reduced role. Usually that means a role off the bench, though Jacksonville doesn’t have an abundance of options at end. They did, however, help their cause by signing Matt Roth, one of the most underrated all-around edge players in the league. Roth will work ahead of Jeremy Mincey (a semi-explosive run defender but low-impact player over all) and somewhere in a rotation with last year’s fifth-round picks, Austen Lane and Larry Hart. Lane is a willowy athlete; Hart is a pass-rushing specialist who needs to be a tad faster to justify his slight 6’0”, 248-pound build. He reportedly came to camp out of shape and could lose his job to undrafted second-year pro Aaron Morgan.
There’s the possibility for a long-term potent one-two punch at defensive tackle if Tyson Alualu can learn an array of N.F.L.-quality pass-rush moves to augment his considerable initial burst, and if Terrance Knighton can stop ordering seconds at his mother’s kitchen table (or wherever else he goes to put on pounds). When fit, Knighton has the size and methodical power to clog the pile and consistently command double teams. Rounding out the interior front, Leger Douzable is an intriguing run-defending sub who can spell both defensive tackles.
The hope is that the continued growth of the defensive tackles and a revamped linebacking unit can fix a run defense that gave up the third-most yards per carry in football last season. Dependable do-everything veteran Daryl Smith, the only returning starter, will line up primarily on the left outside. On the right will be ex-Colt Clint Session, a fierce competitor who is expected to be more physical and consistent than the departed Justin Durant. Working between the two and ahead of aggressive utility backup Russell Allen is Paul Posluszny. The ex-Bill is not in the Urlacher class of middle linebackers, but he brings the inside thumping and flawless tackling that has been sorely lacking here.
Posluszny can also run down the seams and hunt underneath crossing patterns in coverage, which is something Jacksonville’s nickel linebacking unit lacked aside from Smith last season. Posluszny’s presence allows Jack Del Rio and defensive coordinator Mel Tucker to stray even further from the usual banal zone concepts and venture deeper into the land of blitz they’ve explored with better frequency. It’s critical they do so, as this secondary won’t be getting much help from the traditional four-man pass-rush.
It’s a secondary that needs the help, too. Strong safety Courtney Greene is not a comfortable decision maker in space (teams like the Colts can be particularly cruel in the way they attack him with dual receivers screaming down the seams). Athletically, new free safety Dawan Landry is an upgrade over the deluge of duds that paraded through this spot last season. But Landry is also better suited as a strong safety, closer to the line of scrimmage. It was not Gene Smith’s first choice to sign the 28-year-old to play out of position, but the free safety market dried up after Eric Weddle rejoined San Diego.
The Jags fortunately have a solid cornerbacking tandem that can help offset the vulnerabilities at safety. When he’s right, Rashean Mathis is a stopper who can also make plays. Derek Cox struggled at times last season and was even benched at one point, but athletically, the ’09 third-rounder has the necessary tools to play man or zone. It’s just a matter of focus and execution.
Tucker must take advantage of new nickel back Drew Coleman’s versatility in the slot. Coleman is not a dominant presence, but he can cover adequately and disguise blitzes extremely well. He’s a definite step up from David Jones.
Special Teams
New punter Matt Turk has been in the N.F.L. longer than the Jaguar franchise, but he doesn’t show any alarming signs of decline. Josh Scobee is one of the best long-distant field-goal kickers in the league. Though not an electrifying athlete, Mike Thomas can make things happen as a punt returner (he ran one back 78 yards for a score last season), while kick-returning third-string running back Deji Karim produces quality field position on a fairly regular basis.
Bottom Line
Too much about this team smells average. The loss of off-season activities could prove especially harmful to a pass offense that’s young and still needing to come together. Defensively, if you can’t pressure the quarterback these days, you generally can’t win.
Predicted Finish: 4th A.F.C. South
Andy Benoit is the founder of NFLTouchdown.com and covers the N.F.L. for CBSsports.com. He can be reached at andy.benoit@NFLtouchdown.com.
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