Jason and Justin Sablich are here to help you with your fantasy football team. The Sablich brothers will provide fantasy football advice throughout the season on this blog and on Twitter (@5thDownFantasy).
Do you have a “start or sit” question? This season we will be taking questions on Twitter rather than in the comments section below. Follow us at @5thDownFantasy.
The biggest surprise of Week 1 had to be Cam Newton’s N.F.L. debut with the Carolina Panthers. There was no expert alive who expected him to put up 422 passing yards and 2 touchdowns on the board. And, not surprisingly, his ownership percentage shot into the 70s in many leagues. We won’t blame you for getting excited, especially if you have a need at the position, but please temper your expectations, for one game does not a fantasy stud make. He has a lot more to prove and is among our unfavorable matchups in Week 2
Favorable/Unfavorable Quarterback Matchups
Favorable
Ben Roethlisberger (PIT) vs. Seattle – Despite losing his best offensive lineman for the season last week (Willie Colon), we fully expect Roethlisberger to bounce back big at home against a Seattle defense that looks nothing like the Ravens’.
Mark Sanchez (NYJ) vs. Jacksonville – He certainly wasn’t perfect against Dallas, but from a fantasy perspective, he was good enough to finish in the top 10 in standard scoring leagues at his position. The Jaguars, who have been extremely generous to quarterbacks over the years, gave up 22 points to a shaky Matt Hasselbeck last week.
Rex Grossman (WAS) vs. Arizona – We had him here last week against the Giants and he performed well (23 fantasy points), so there’s no reason not to list him here against an Arizona secondary that gave up 422 yards to the rookie quarterback Cam Newton in Week 1.
Matt Schaub (HOU) vs. Miami – After what Tom Brady did to this unit (517 yards and 4 TDs), it’s pretty clear the Dolphins have a lot of work to do in the secondary.
Unfavorable
Matt Hasselbeck (TEN) vs. Baltimore – There’s no good reason to mess with Hasselbeck seeing how the Ravens handled Roethlisberger in Week 1 (5 forced turnovers).
Cam Newton (CAR) vs. Green Bay – 422 passing yards and 2 TDs as a Week 1 rookie was truly remarkable, but that was against the Cardinals. Here come the defending Super Bowl champions.
Matt Ryan (ATL) vs. Philadelphia – Ryan and the Atlanta passing game struggled somewhat in Week 1 against Chicago, and things won’t get any easier here as the Eagles generated good pressure on Sam Bradford, limiting him to just 7 fantasy points while eventually knocking him out of the game.
Jay Cutler (CHI) vs. New Orleans – Cutler had a quality fantasy day (23 standard points) against an Atlanta defense that is expected to be even better this season, but take away 2 short passes that went for a combined 109 yards and 1 TD and you’re looking at 203 yards, 1 TD, 4 sacks and 1 INT. Sure, the Saints gave up 312 yards and 3 TDs to Aaron Rodgers last Thursday night, but most defenses are guilty of similar stat lines against him. We expect the Saints to play tough at home after a painful Week 1 loss.
Favorable/Unfavorable Running Back Matchups
Favorable
Peyton Hillis (CLE) vs. Indianapolis – The Colts’ shoddy run defense, with a little help from a Derrick Ward injury, made Ben Tate the sixth best standard scoring running back option last week, and will be in even more trouble if linebacker Gary Brackett can’t suit up.
Cedric Benson (CIN) vs. Denver – Benson is coming off 121 yards and a touchdown, and the Broncos’ run-stopping troubles from last season have not changed, considering how the Raiders racked up 190 yards on the ground Monday night.
Michael Turner (ATL) vs. Philadelphia – The Eagles’ run defense and its questionable linebacker corps had trouble stopping the Rams’ backs with Steven Jackson ripping off a 47-yard TD on his first carry, and Cadillac Williams totaling 140 yards after Jackson exited because of a quad injury (yes, the same Cadillac that averaged 3.5 yards a carry last season).
James Starks (GB) vs. Carolina – Starks is clearly the better back in Green Bay and should see even more carries this week against a Carolina defense that gave up 16 fantasy points to Beanie Wells in Week 1. The loss of Panthers linebacker John Beason for the season further weakens this flimsy unit.
Unfavorable
Maurice Jones-Drew (JAX) vs. Jets – Owners who took a chance on Jones-Drew are all smiles this week, considering he showed no ill effects from his off-season knee issues and had a productive fantasy day against the Titans. But the going will be much tougher against a stout Jets defensive front that held Felix Jones to 44 rushing yards Sunday night.
Chris Johnson (TEN) vs. Baltimore – Johnson is certain to see more carries in Week 2 as the Titans admittedly botched up the game plan with his limited workload against Jacksonville, but it might not make a big difference with the Ravens in town.
Jamaal Charles (KC) vs. Detroit – It’s a little concerning that Jamaal saw just 10 carries against one of the worst run defenses of 2010, but it’s more along the lines that the Chiefs fell way behind and abandoned the run than Coach Todd Haley being Coach Todd Haley. With the Lions’ high-powered offense on tap, that could very well be the case again this week, not to mention their nasty defensive front will make things extra difficult on the offense.
DeAngelo Williams (CAR) vs. Green Bay – Locked in a timeshare with Jonathan Stewart, Williams will need his team to play with a lead in order to get significant work, and that doesn’t figure to be the case this week against the Packers.
Favorable/Unfavorable Wide Receiver Matchups
Favorable
Santonio Holmes (NYJ) vs. Jacksonville – O.K., so the big game against the Cowboys didn’t come, but you should certainly keep him active against a Jacksonville secondary that was burned by Kenny Britt for 136 yards and 2 TDs.
Mike Sims Walker (STL) vs. Giants – The Rams’ loss of Danny Amendola for an extended period opens the door for more targets, and the thin Giants secondary looked predictably weak against the Redskins in Week 1.
Mario Manningham (NYG) vs. St. Louis – With Hakeem Nicks’s status in doubt for Monday night, Manningham could end up being Eli Manning’s No. 1 option against a Rams team with both of its starting cornerbacks looking like a scratch.
Jordy Nelson (GB) vs. Carolina – Six catches, 77 yards and a score in Week 1 aren’t too shabby considering he is supposed to be in a value-killing timeshare with James Jones. Carolina gave up 24 fantasy points to the position in Week 1, courtesy of the Arizona Cardinals, making Nelson a fine WR3 play in Week 2.
Unfavorable
Mike Williams (TB) vs. Minnesota – The Vikings did a good job limiting one of the hottest players this preseason (Vincent Jackson) to 31 yards on 2 receptions in Week 1. Williams’s stat line could suffer a similar fate if the Vikings can pressure Josh Freeman the way they did Philip Rivers.
Chad Ochocinco (NE) vs. San Diego – Playing behind Deion Branch, Ochocinco was in on just 18 of the Patriots’ 80 plays. He cannot be started until that number significantly increases, and the matchup here is not a good one anyway.
Steve Smith (CAR) vs. Green Bay – You can’t bench him after his 178-yard, 2-TD Week 1 performance, but certainly expect the going to be much tougher against a Packers defense with a lot more talent than the Cardinals’.
Julio Jones (ATL) vs. Philadelphia – Asomugha and Samuel front one of the toughest secondaries that the dynamic rookie is going to see all season.
Favorable/Unfavorable Tight End Matchups
Favorable
Owen Daniels (HOU) vs. Miami – The Dolphins were burned badly by the Patriots’ talented tight end duo (30 combined fantasy points), and the Kevin Walter injury could result in an even bigger role for Daniels in the Texans’ offense if he misses Week 2.
Lance Kendricks (STL) vs. Giants – He was a nonfactor in his N.F.L debut with two ugly drops, but the chance for redemption has arrived as the Giants had no answer for the Redskins’ tight ends (130 total yards on 7 receptions), and the Amendola injury makes him even more important to Sam Bradford, who is expected to play despite a banged up finger.
Unfavorable
Brent Celek (PHI) vs. Atlanta – Despite talk this off-season that Michael Vick would get his tight end more involved, Celek was mainly used as a blocker to slow the blitzing Rams on Sunday (2 targets, 1 reception, 13 yards). Expect more of the same until the Eagles’ offensive line can protect Vick better (3 sacks, 11 hits).
Marcedes Lewis (JAX) vs. Jets – Lewis is dealing with a calf strain and a new quarterback (McGown), and isn’t worth starting as a TE1 against the Jets.
Favorable/Unfavorable Defense/Special Teams Matchups
Favorable
Steelers vs. Seattle, Packers vs. Carolina, Lions vs. Kansas City, Jets vs. Jacksonville
Unfavorable
Falcons vs. Philadelphia, Dolphins vs. Houston, Patriots vs. San Diego, 49ers vs. Dallas
Do you have a “start or sit” question? This season we will be taking questions on Twitter rather than in the comments section below. Follow us at @5thDownFantasy.
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