Jason and Justin Sablich are here to help you with your fantasy football draft. The Sablich brothers will provide fantasy football advice throughout the season on this blog and on Twitter (@5thDownFantasy).
Complete fantasy football ranking for all positions, including PPR formats, updated throughout the preseason.
Every season there will be players who greatly exceed their draft positions, and there will be just as many who go undrafted that can turn the tide in your favor. Last year, Arian Foster, Brandon Lloyd and LeGarrette Blount were classic examples, and having one or more of them on your team most likely meant you were still a nervous wreck when championship weeks arrived.
Here are some potential breakout and sleeper candidates to keep an eye on for the coming season.
Quarterback
Matthew Stafford, DET – He started only 13 games in his first two seasons, but he appears to be fully recovered from last season’s shoulder injury and has bulked up this off-season. Detroit also added offensive firepower in this year’s draft with receiver Titus Young and running back Mikel Leshoure.
Sam Bradford, STL — Set to build off a record-setting first year (most completions and most consecutive passes without an INT for a rookie), Bradford will now have the former Broncos head coach Josh McDaniels calling his plays, which should inject more life and creativity into the passing game. It would be nice to see the Rams add another veteran receiver via free agency, but Bradford is primed to surpass last season’s totals of 3,512 passing yards and 18 touchdowns.
Tim Tebow, DEN — Tebow replaced the injured Kyle Orton as the starting QB for the final three games of the 2010 season and was surprisingly outstanding from a fantasy perspective, averaging 27.3 points per game. His running ability has him on the radars of many fantasy owners this year and some people, including Mike Klis of The Denver Post, believe Tebow will open the season as the starter. That’s exactly the kind of thing you want to hear if you’re thinking of Tebow as your QB2.
Running Back
Ryan Mathews, SD — There is still plenty of concern about his durability, but there isn’t much doubt that the Chargers want him to be their primary ball carrier. As last year’s 120-yard, 3-TD performance against Denver in Week 17 can attest, Mathews has the makings of a fantasy star.
Shonn Greene, NYJ — It’s no secret that Greene will be taking over as the Jets’ featured back this season with LaDainian Tomlinson ready to embrace a third-down role. Surely last season’s flop will have many owners skeptical about Greene’s ability to handle the lead, and that means you could be getting a potential RB1 at a bargain price in many drafts this summer.
Mikel Leshoure, DET — While a healthy Best is still going to be the Lions’ lead back, Leshoure should still have an active role and is a safe bet to lead the team in rushing scores. The 6-foot 230-pounder crossed the goal line 20 times for Illinois last season, and as Tim Twentyman from The Detroit News writes, the ”Lions don’t draft players without a specific role in mind.”
Delone Carter, IND — Coach Jim Caldwell has confirmed that the Colts are looking for Carter to be a solution to their short-yardage issues, and in a high-powered offense that would mean plenty of touchdown opportunities. Scouts Inc.’s Matt Williamson has high praise for Carter, saying he could end up as the best value pick in the draft. With Donald Brown currently the only Colts running back with a contract, Carter may be given an even larger role sooner than expected.
Rashad Jennings, JAX — A near clone to Arian Foster from a physical standpoint, Jennings averaged over 5 yards a carry in his first two seasons. And considering Maurice Jones-Drew’s knee troubles, Jennings could be called upon to shoulder more of the load in 2011. Obviously, Jones-Drew owners need him as a handcuff. But as a late-round pick for the rest of us, he could turn out to be a lot more.
Wide Receiver
Mario Manningham, NYG — We could be seeing Manningham lining up as the starting complement to Hakeem Nicks this season if the Giants decide to part ways with Steve Smith. His numbers have steadily improved over the course of three seasons, and in a starting role he should have no problems eclipsing the 60 catches and 944 yards he totaled in 2010.
Mike Thomas, JAX – The Jaguars’ leading receiver last season is expected to emerge as the No. 1 option with Mike Sims-Walker likely on the move. Thomas was just 180 yards short of 1,000 receiving yards in 2010, and if you’re worried about a rookie quarterback holding him back some, it appears that Blaine Gabbert isn’t going to be starting any time soon.
Jordy Nelson, GB — With Donald Driver on his last legs and the possibility of James Jones leaving Green Bay in free agency, odds are good Nelson will be Aaron Rodgers’s No. 2 option at receiver this year. He really came on late in the playoffs with 21 receptions, 286 yards, and 2 TDs, and who doesn’t remember his 9-catch, 140-yard, 1-TD performance in the Super Bowl?
Jacoby Ford, OAK — Raiders Coach Hue Jackson has stated he will get the speedster more involved this season. Ford wasn’t seeing regular playing time until Week 7 last year, but he still managed to score seven touchdowns while averaging almost 19 yards a catch.
Emmanuel Sanders, PIT — Last season, we watched Mike Wallace trump Hines Ward as the receiver to own in Pittsburgh. Will Sanders be the next guy to bump him down the depth chart? Williamson seems to think so, as he believes Sanders, ”could be primed for a big jump in production during his sophomore season.”
Tight End
Jared Cook, TEN — While there really isn’t a good reason to dig too deep when it comes to selecting a starting tight end, Cook is definitely one of the better TE2 selections this season. He’ll be Tennessee’s starting tight end this year after he performed well during the final five games last season (250 yards, 1 TD).
Jimmy Graham, NO — You’ll find his name on virtually every fantasy ”breakout” list, but we felt obligated to pen him in just in case your fantasy preparations are just getting under way. With Jeremy Shockey out of the picture, expect Graham to improve on last year’s impressive second half, in which he averaged 7.5 fantasy points a game.
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