The looming end of the lockout is expected to be followed by the craziest two weeks of player movement in N.F.L. history. The assumption is that Donovan McNabb will be part of the movement.
Washington’s decision to dump McNabb was all but made last November when the front office gave him a contract that called for a $10 million roster bonus on Sept. 9. The Redskins knew they weren’t going to pay eight figures to a man they’d benched earlier that season. The rest of the league knew this as well, which is why the Redskins will have trouble getting even a lower-round pick for McNabb.
Expect McNabb to be released in a few days. Then, expect him to…what, exactly? Look closely at the N.F.L. landscape and at McNabb’s circumstances and you’ll see an outlook cloudy enough to result in a possible early retirement.
McNabb is 34. By all accounts, he’s not willing to be a backup. In the past 15 months, Andy Reid and Mike Shanahan, two of the most respected offensive coaches of this era, have gotten rid of him. And, fair or unfair, the disastrous year in Washington brought about questions about McNabb’s work ethic and his ability to learn a new system. Before 2010, McNabb spent 11 years in Philadelphia’s West Coast offense. If McNabb couldn’t learn a new system after an off-season of minicamps and OTA’s in Washington, who will trust he can learn a new system on the fly somewhere else?
The quarterback-needy Vikings seem to be cooling on McNabb. The Vikings probably started having doubts back in the spring when they hired new offensive coordinator Bill Musgrave and eradicated Brad Childress’s West Coast system. Without a firm grasp of Minnesota’s new offense, McNabb is not valuable as a starter or as a mentor to the rookie quarterback Christian Ponder.
If this reasoning rules out the Vikings, then it also rules out the Titans and the 49ers. The other teams in need of immediate quarterback help appear to be headed in a different direction. The Cardinals are expected to acquire Kevin Kolb. If they can’t get Kolb, they’ll probably go for Marc Bulger, who, as a (very) poor man’s Kurt Warner, at least has the right style of play for Ken Whisenhunt’s offense. The Bengals are prepared to start the rookie Andy Dalton if Carson Palmer walks away. The Raiders, for whatever reason, are sold on Jason Campbell. The Browns run a West Coast system but figure to keep developing Colt McCoy. And the Bills are comfortable with Ryan Fitzpatrick, who, at this point, is probably a better player than McNabb anyway.
This leaves only two conceivable destinations for McNabb: Seattle and Miami. The Seahawks run a West Coast style offense and may need to replace the free agent Matt Hasselbeck. If Pete Carroll decides he can’t rely on Charlie Whitehurst (and that’s not a small if considering Carroll gave up two quality draft picks and $8 million for the unproven passer, then started him ahead of a less-than-100 percent-Hasselbeck in the must-win Week 17 game against the Rams last season), perhaps he turns to McNabb. There were rumors a year ago about Seattle’s interest in McNabb.
Regarding the Dolphins, logic says they shouldn’t be interested in McNabb given that Chad Henne – who is not worth giving up on just yet – can still grow or, at the very least, be a short-term placeholder. But we found out last season when Henne was benched for Chad Pennington that Coach Tony Sparano can get desperate for an instant spark. That desperation probably hasn’t abated after the team’s off-season pursuit of Jim Harbaugh.
The Dolphins could view a McNabb signing as a two-year stab at catching lightning in a bottle. True, the new offensive coordinator Brian Daboll doesn’t run a West Coast system. But that caveat would be outweighed by the fact that McNabb would give the Dolphins some of the star power that the owner Stephen Ross craves.
What’s clear is McNabb is not the player he was a few years ago, and the circumstances around the league are tilted against him. Keep in mind, we’ve only discussed whether teams will see McNabb as a possible fit. We haven’t discussed whether they’ll see him as a better fit than Vince Young, Kyle Orton, Alex Smith, Seneca Wallace or…dare we say…Brett Favre*.
If I had 10 chips to bet on where McNabb plays in 2011, I’d put 4 on Seattle, 3 on Miami, 1 on “somewhere else” and 2 on “nowhere.”
*If you think the Favre bit is a joke, think again. It’s likely that Favre will actually retire this time. But given that there was no off-season, all quarterbacks on the open market are essentially “Brett Favre” in that they’ll be coming aboard without having had time to practice or learn the offense. In this sense, Favre is a proven commodity who is available. Some team will try to tempt him; it’s only a matter of whether he’ll be able to resist.
Andy Benoit is the founder of NFLTouchdown.com and provides N.F.L. analysis for CBSSports.com. He can be reached atandy.benoit@nfltouchdown.com.
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