Simon Hart has predicted heptathlon gold for Jessica Ennis (Photo: GETTY IMAGES))
A year before she achieved her golden double at the 2008 Beijing Olympics, Rebecca Adlington was struggling home in 10th place in her signature 800 metres freestyle event at the 2007 World Championships in Melbourne.
Three months before the Beijing Games, the relatively unknown Usain Bolt was breaking the 10-second barrier for the first time in only his third ever 100 metres race.
A month later, and with the Games almost upon her, heptathlon medal hopeful Jessica Ennis was being diagnosed with multiple stress fractures in her foot that signalled the end of her Olympic dream.
The lesson is clear. The build-up to the London Olympics may have entered its final year but there are numerous twists and turns ahead before the Olympic cauldron is lit on July 27, 2012.
New superstars are yet to emerge while others with medal ambitions recede into the background.
Twelve months ago, in an article in the Sunday Telegraph’s Sports Life magazine, I was tasked with identifying Britain’s 20 best gold medal hopes for London 2012 based on their performances at past Games and at other global-level championships.
A year on, many are still going strong but I would have to admit that six or seven of them have moved from ‘probables’ to ‘possibles’.
Cyclists Sir Chris Hoy and Victoria Pendleton no longer have their old aura of invincibility, swimmer Gemma Spofforth appears to have lost her motivation and canoeist Tim Brabants has lost his form.
Gymnast Daniel Keatings is still battling to get back to his best after a serious knee ligament injury, rower Zac Purchase has been held back by illness while Tom Daley has met more than his match in Chinese diver Qiu Bo, whose brilliance in last week’s World Diving Championships in Shanghai makes him the odds-on favourite to deprive
the teenager of gold in London.
Or, at least, that is how it looks with one year to go. And that is precisely my point.
One year out, the permanent venues may have been more or less completed, the majority of tickets sold and sponsorship targets reached, give or take a few million pounds, but out on the sporting field of play things remain very much in flux.
Of the 550 athletes expected to wear a Team GB vest next year, only one athlete, open-water swimmer Keri-Anne Payne, has guaranteed her place in the team and the next 12 months promise to be a fascinating journey as thousands of hopefuls battle it out for the remaining 549 spots in a selection process that will be mirrored the
world over.
For those who have not been lucky enough to obtain a ticket to London 2012, there is still the consolation of attending one of the selection events that will make or break an athlete’s dreams.
The drama of next year’s British swimming or athletics trials will be hard to beat.
My gold medal predictions for 2012? Well, having argued how imprecise the art of predicting Olympics can be, it would be a cop-out not to have another stab at my golden top 20.
So here it is, to be taken with a generous pinch of salt:
1. Rebecca Adlington (swimming, 800m freestyle)
2. Ben Ainslie (sailing, Finn class)
3. Laura Bechtolsheimer (equestrian, dressage)
4. Alistair Brownlee (triathlon)
5. Mark Cavendish (cycling, road race)
6. Rachel Cawthorn (canoe sprint, K1 500m)
7. Aaron Cook (taekwondo, -80kg)
8. Jessica Ennis (athletics, heptathlon)
9. Mo Farah (athletics, 5,000 & 10,000m)
10. GB eventing team (equestrian)
11. GB men’s coxless four (rowing)
12. GB men’s pursuit team (track cycling)
13. GB women’s pursuit team (track cycling)
14: Paul Goodison (sailing, Laser class)
15. Katherine Grainger & Anna Watkins (rowing, women’s double scull)
16. Fran Halsall (swimming, 100m freestyle)
17; Phillips Idowu (athletics, triple jump)
18. Ed McKeever (canoe sprint, K1 200m)
19. Keri-Anne Payne (swimming, 10km open-water)
20. Iain Percey & Andrew Simpson (sailing, Star class)
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